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Comparative study of SARIMA and NARX models in predicting the incidence of schistosomiasis in China

Xinya Yu Zhuang Chen Longxing Qi

*Corresponding author: Longxing Qi qilx@ahu.edu.cn

MBE2019,4,2266doi:10.3934/mbe.2019112

In this paper, based on the data of the incidence of schistosomiasis in China from January 2011 to May 2018 we establish SARIMA model and NARX model. These two models are used to predict the incidence of schistosomiasis in China from June 2018 to September 2018. By comparing the mean square error and the mean absolute error of two sets of predicted values, the results show that the NARX model is better and it has an e ective forecasting precision to incidence of schistosomiasis. Then according to the results, a mixed model called NARX-SARIMA model is used to predict the incidence future trends and make a comparison with the two model. The mixed model has a better application based on its good fitting capability.

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