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Parameter estimation of modeling schistosomiasis transmission for four provinces in China

Long-xing Qi Yanwu Tang Shou-jing Tian

*Corresponding author: Long-xing Qi qilx@ahu.edu.cn


According to monitoring data of Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jiangsu Provinces, in this paper the transmission of schistosomiasis is studied based on Barbour’s mathematical model. The values of the basic reproduction number and key parameters are obtained with two methods. The first method is to calculate directly by using parameter values in references. The second one is to estimate parameter values by the methods of noise measurement and data smoothing and then to obtain new values of basic reproduction number. Comparing these two methods, we found the second method is good to fit the data. This parameter values can be used as reference values in other provinces. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to discuss the development trend of prevalence of humans and snails in each province. It is found that schistosomiasis in four provinces is expected to be eliminated with the improvement or maintenance of the standards of prevention and control. Furthermore, the time needed is different in the different four provinces.

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