Special Issue: Business Cycles Modeling in Mathematics
Guest Editor
Prof. Giuseppe Orlando
Department of Economics and Finance (DEF) of the University of Bari, Italy
Email: giuseppe.orlando@uniba.it
Manuscript Topics
This special issue is devoted to the mathematical modeling and analysis of business cycles — a central phenomenon in economic systems where periods of expansion and contraction alternate in recurring but complex patterns. Despite efforts to achieve equilibrium, market economies exhibit persistent oscillatory behavior driven by endogenous mechanisms, time delays, nonlinear feedbacks, and increasing global interconnections. We invite high-quality research papers that address the modeling, analysis, simulation, and empirical validation of business cycles using mathematical, computational, and interdisciplinary approaches. Relevant topics include, but are not limited to:
• Mathematical Modeling of Business Cycles
Formulation and analysis of mathematical models describing cyclical behaviors in macroeconomic variables such as GDP, investment, employment, and capital flows, including both continuous (ODE, DDE) and discrete-time models.
• Classical and Modern Cycle Theories
Studies on Kitchin (2–4 years), Juglar (7–12 years), Kuznets (16–25 years), and Kondratieff (40–60 years) cycles; interactions between short, medium, and long-term cycles; endogenous growth models; Keynesian IS-LM-based cycles.
• Time Lags and Feedback Mechanisms
Investigation of delays between investment decisions, capital accumulation, production capacity, and returns on capital as drivers of cyclical behavior; inertia in information propagation and decision-making processes.
• Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Economic Systems
Application of nonlinear differential equations, multistability, bifurcations, and chaotic attractors in the study of macroeconomic cycles; sensitivity to initial conditions and complex endogenous fluctuations.
• Coupled Economic Systems and Synchronization of Business Cycles
Modeling of interactions between multiple economies through capital flows, trade, and financial markets; analysis of synchronization phenomena, structural changes, and collective dynamics under globalization; coupling effects analyzed through tools such as the Master Stability Function.
• Stability Analysis and Control of Cycles
Mathematical approaches to the stability and stabilization of business cycles; identification of stable and unstable parameter regimes in coupled economic systems.
• Computational Methods and Simulation Studies
Numerical simulations of mathematical models; sensitivity analyses; calibration with empirical data; software tools for complex systems modeling.
• Applications and Empirical Validation
Application of models to real-world economic data; forecasting of business cycles; assessment of policy interventions aimed at stabilizing economies and minimizing systemic risk.
We especially welcome submissions that bridge theory and practice, propose innovative mathematical methodologies, and contribute to a deeper understanding of complex business cycle dynamics in modern interconnected economies.
Keywords
Business cycles
Economic dynamics
Mathematical modeling
Nonlinear dynamical systems
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs)
Time delays
IS-LM models
Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznets, Kondratieff cycles
Multistability
Synchronization of economies
Master Stability Function
Bifurcations
Stability analysis
Globalization and systemic risk
Computational economics
Macrodynamics
Chaotic behavior in economics
Coupled economic systems
Applied mathematics in economics
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