Renewable energy analysis for 2023 and estimate for 2030 in Finland

Jaakko Schroderus; Pekka Tervonen; Harri Haapasalo; Marko Huttula; Jaakko Schroderus; Pekka Tervonen; Harri Haapasalo; Marko Huttula

doi:10.3934/energy.2025047

AIMS Energy

2025, Volume 13, Issue 5: 1273-1300. doi: 10.3934/energy.2025047

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Research article

Renewable energy analysis for 2023 and estimate for 2030 in Finland

1.
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland, P.O. Box 4610
2.
Nano and Molecular Systems Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland, P.O. Box 3000

Received: 02 July 2025 Revised: 11 September 2025 Accepted: 30 September 2025 Published: 14 October 2025

In this study, we examined Finland's renewable energy landscape in 2023 and provided an extrapolated estimate for 2030 using hourly data and capacity projections. The method applied 2023 hourly capacity factors to 2030 installed capacity and consumption estimates provided by Fingrid to simulate future production and consumption patterns. In 2023, wind and solar power comprised 19% of electricity production but were projected to supply over 50% by 2030. However, due to the intermittency of these sources, the model estimated that Finland will remain electricity-negative for 61% of the hours in 2030, with an annual deficit of 10 TWh. Electricity price data from Nord Pool was also analyzed, showing a modest inverse correlation between wind production and market price. The analysis revealed significant seasonal variability, with winter deficits and summer surpluses closely associated with wind availability. Nuclear and hydropower remain critical for baseload and grid balancing, whereas storage technologies and flexible demand are necessary to close the gap. We conclude that under the current development trajectories, Finland is unlikely to achieve full electricity self-sufficiency by 2030 and will continue to rely on imports during low-production periods. These findings highlight the importance of diversifying renewable generation, improving capacity factors, and investing in energy storage to support Finland's 2035 carbon neutrality target.
- renewable energy,
- wind power,
- solar energy,
- energy transition,
- Finland,
- capacity factor
Citation: Jaakko Schroderus, Pekka Tervonen, Harri Haapasalo, Marko Huttula. Renewable energy analysis for 2023 and estimate for 2030 in Finland[J]. AIMS Energy, 2025, 13(5): 1273-1300. doi: 10.3934/energy.2025047

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Abstract

In this study, we examined Finland's renewable energy landscape in 2023 and provided an extrapolated estimate for 2030 using hourly data and capacity projections. The method applied 2023 hourly capacity factors to 2030 installed capacity and consumption estimates provided by Fingrid to simulate future production and consumption patterns. In 2023, wind and solar power comprised 19% of electricity production but were projected to supply over 50% by 2030. However, due to the intermittency of these sources, the model estimated that Finland will remain electricity-negative for 61% of the hours in 2030, with an annual deficit of 10 TWh. Electricity price data from Nord Pool was also analyzed, showing a modest inverse correlation between wind production and market price. The analysis revealed significant seasonal variability, with winter deficits and summer surpluses closely associated with wind availability. Nuclear and hydropower remain critical for baseload and grid balancing, whereas storage technologies and flexible demand are necessary to close the gap. We conclude that under the current development trajectories, Finland is unlikely to achieve full electricity self-sufficiency by 2030 and will continue to rely on imports during low-production periods. These findings highlight the importance of diversifying renewable generation, improving capacity factors, and investing in energy storage to support Finland's 2035 carbon neutrality target.

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