Generation expansion planning toward Net Zero target considering co-firing green fuel, CCUS installation and early decommissioning in thermal power plants: A case study of Vietnam

Van Duong Nguyen; Duy Duc Ha; Thi Hoai Thu Nguyen; Duc Huy Nguyen; Van Duong Nguyen; Duy Duc Ha; Thi Hoai Thu Nguyen; Duc Huy Nguyen

doi:10.3934/energy.2025021

AIMS Energy

2025, Volume 13, Issue 3: 540-568. doi: 10.3934/energy.2025021

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Research article

Generation expansion planning toward Net Zero target considering co-firing green fuel, CCUS installation and early decommissioning in thermal power plants: A case study of Vietnam

1.
Institute of Energy, Vietnam
2.
Power Grid and Renewable Energy Lab., School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Hanoi University of Science and Technology, Vietnam

Received: 24 February 2025 Revised: 13 May 2025 Accepted: 21 May 2025 Published: 03 June 2025

Vietnam is committed to achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050, with the power sector being central to this transition. This study investigated optimal generation expansion pathways using a unified dataset aligned with Power Development Plan Ⅷ (PDP Ⅷ). It compared two planning approaches with 3 scenarios: (1) constraining CO₂ emissions directly (Scenario S3), and (2) predefining thermal plant co-firing's timeline and ratios (Scenarios S1 and S2). S1 adheres closely to PDP Ⅷ's planned thermal commitments and solar limits; S2 offers flexibility by committing only plants under construction and allowing higher solar potential. Results indicate that Scenario S3 yields the lowest total system cost while meeting the Net Zero target. The optimal strategy in S3 involves early decommissioning of thermal plants and prioritizing renewable energy and storage expansion over thermal fuel conversion. Notably, nuclear power and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage technology installation were not included in this optimal pathway. By 2050 under S3, renewables will contribute to 95% of energy generation, with thermal power dropping to 5%. CO₂ emissions peak in 2030 in all scenarios, earlier than defined by PDP Ⅷ. The study highlights the critical need for energy storage, flexible generation, and significant high-voltage direct current transmission capacity from South Central to North Vietnam after 2030. Full utilization of ground-mounted solar potential suggests a need for expanded land allocation if available. These findings emphasize prioritizing renewable energy, storage, and transmission investment for an efficient Net Zero transition.
- net zero,
- Vietnam's power planning,
- renewable energy,
- balmorel,
- CO₂ emissions,
- fuel conversion,
- co-firing
Citation: Van Duong Nguyen, Duy Duc Ha, Thi Hoai Thu Nguyen, Duc Huy Nguyen. Generation expansion planning toward Net Zero target considering co-firing green fuel, CCUS installation and early decommissioning in thermal power plants: A case study of Vietnam[J]. AIMS Energy, 2025, 13(3): 540-568. doi: 10.3934/energy.2025021

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Abstract

Vietnam is committed to achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050, with the power sector being central to this transition. This study investigated optimal generation expansion pathways using a unified dataset aligned with Power Development Plan Ⅷ (PDP Ⅷ). It compared two planning approaches with 3 scenarios: (1) constraining CO₂ emissions directly (Scenario S3), and (2) predefining thermal plant co-firing's timeline and ratios (Scenarios S1 and S2). S1 adheres closely to PDP Ⅷ's planned thermal commitments and solar limits; S2 offers flexibility by committing only plants under construction and allowing higher solar potential. Results indicate that Scenario S3 yields the lowest total system cost while meeting the Net Zero target. The optimal strategy in S3 involves early decommissioning of thermal plants and prioritizing renewable energy and storage expansion over thermal fuel conversion. Notably, nuclear power and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage technology installation were not included in this optimal pathway. By 2050 under S3, renewables will contribute to 95% of energy generation, with thermal power dropping to 5%. CO₂ emissions peak in 2030 in all scenarios, earlier than defined by PDP Ⅷ. The study highlights the critical need for energy storage, flexible generation, and significant high-voltage direct current transmission capacity from South Central to North Vietnam after 2030. Full utilization of ground-mounted solar potential suggests a need for expanded land allocation if available. These findings emphasize prioritizing renewable energy, storage, and transmission investment for an efficient Net Zero transition.

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