Model predictions and data fitting can effectively work in spreading COVID-19 pandemic

Bashdar A. Salam; Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw; Abubakr M. Adarbar; Hedayat M. Sharifi; Azhi S. Mohammed; Bashdar A. Salam; Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw; Abubakr M. Adarbar; Hedayat M. Sharifi; Azhi S. Mohammed

doi:10.3934/bioeng.2022014

AIMS Bioengineering

2022, Volume 9, Issue 2: 197-212. doi: 10.3934/bioeng.2022014

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Research article Special Issues

Model predictions and data fitting can effectively work in spreading COVID-19 pandemic

Department of Mathematics, College of Basic Education, University of Raparin, Ranya, Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Received: 05 April 2022 Revised: 19 May 2022 Accepted: 24 May 2022 Published: 09 June 2022

Spreading COVID-19 pandemic has been considered as a global issue. Many international efforts including mathematical approaches have been recently discussed to control this disease more effectively. In this study, we have developed our previous SIUWR model and some transmission parameters are added. Accordingly, the basic reproduction number and elasticity coefficients are calculated at the equilibrium points. Then, some key critical model parameters are identified based on local sensitivities. In addition, the validation of the suggested model is checked by comparing some collected real data in Iraq and France from January 1^st, 2021 to December 25^th, 2021. Interestingly, there are good agreements between the model results and the real confirmed data using computational simulations in MATLAB. Results provide some biological interpretations and they can be used to control this pandemic more effectively. The model results will be used for both countries in minimizing the impact of this virus on their communities.
- mathematical modeling,
- COVID-19 pandemic,
- data fitting,
- elasticity and sensitivity analysis,
- computational simulations
Citation: Bashdar A. Salam, Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw, Abubakr M. Adarbar, Hedayat M. Sharifi, Azhi S. Mohammed. Model predictions and data fitting can effectively work in spreading COVID-19 pandemic[J]. AIMS Bioengineering, 2022, 9(2): 197-212. doi: 10.3934/bioeng.2022014

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Abstract

Spreading COVID-19 pandemic has been considered as a global issue. Many international efforts including mathematical approaches have been recently discussed to control this disease more effectively. In this study, we have developed our previous SIUWR model and some transmission parameters are added. Accordingly, the basic reproduction number and elasticity coefficients are calculated at the equilibrium points. Then, some key critical model parameters are identified based on local sensitivities. In addition, the validation of the suggested model is checked by comparing some collected real data in Iraq and France from January 1^st, 2021 to December 25^th, 2021. Interestingly, there are good agreements between the model results and the real confirmed data using computational simulations in MATLAB. Results provide some biological interpretations and they can be used to control this pandemic more effectively. The model results will be used for both countries in minimizing the impact of this virus on their communities.

Acknowledgments

The authors extend their appreciation to “University of Raparin” for providing feasible research environments. These supports are greatly appreciated.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Author contributions

Bashdar Salam contributed in the methodology, formal analysis, original draft preparation. Sarbaz Khoshnaw contributed in the Conceptualization, validation, writing—review and editing, supervision. Abubakr Adabar contributed in the software, formal analysis, data collection, computational simulations. Hedayat Sharifi contributed in validation, methodology, formal analysis. Azhi Mohammed contributed in the software, formal analysis, data collection. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

References

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