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Market and home production earnings gaps in Russia

  • This study assesses the evolution of earnings across different groups of workers during Russia's 2000–2013 oil boom and amidst the 2014–2015 oil bust and a trade war. Unconditional quantile regressions and growth incidence curves are applied to nine household surveys for 2000–2016 to estimate earnings gaps across urban/rural, farming/non-farming and gender divides at various earnings quantiles. Gaps in pre-fiscal formal labor market earnings and informal non-market home production are assessed, distinguishing the roles of workers' endowments differentials and returns differentials in production markets. Earning gaps are found to be pervasive, with rural and some female-headed households receiving lower returns on their human capital in part because they lack employment opportunities. Rural Russian households face mobility barriers and lack decent employment opportunities, thus lacking incentives for skill investment. Rural households tend to be less educated and face low returns on their various marketable characteristics. Gender gaps were particularly high historically, particularly among lower quantile groups, but have been steadily falling over the past decade. Growth incidence curves reveal that the 2014 shocks affected particularly harshly the farming and urban households, both immediately and over the following years. We conclude that Russia should strengthen its rural assistance programs and lower the mobility and resettlement barriers to improve rural households' access to education and employment.

    Citation: Vladimir Hlasny. Market and home production earnings gaps in Russia[J]. National Accounting Review, 2023, 5(2): 108-124. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2023007

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  • This study assesses the evolution of earnings across different groups of workers during Russia's 2000–2013 oil boom and amidst the 2014–2015 oil bust and a trade war. Unconditional quantile regressions and growth incidence curves are applied to nine household surveys for 2000–2016 to estimate earnings gaps across urban/rural, farming/non-farming and gender divides at various earnings quantiles. Gaps in pre-fiscal formal labor market earnings and informal non-market home production are assessed, distinguishing the roles of workers' endowments differentials and returns differentials in production markets. Earning gaps are found to be pervasive, with rural and some female-headed households receiving lower returns on their human capital in part because they lack employment opportunities. Rural Russian households face mobility barriers and lack decent employment opportunities, thus lacking incentives for skill investment. Rural households tend to be less educated and face low returns on their various marketable characteristics. Gender gaps were particularly high historically, particularly among lower quantile groups, but have been steadily falling over the past decade. Growth incidence curves reveal that the 2014 shocks affected particularly harshly the farming and urban households, both immediately and over the following years. We conclude that Russia should strengthen its rural assistance programs and lower the mobility and resettlement barriers to improve rural households' access to education and employment.



    Despite significant advances in treatment and prevention technologies, contagious diseases continue to impact countless individuals globally. To limit the spread of these diseases, it is imperative to maintain strict control over factors such as transmission routes, population size, rates of human contact, duration of infection, and other critical parameters. Comprehending the behavior and management of pandemic diseases is particularly crucial during the initial infection phases or in the absence of immunization. In this context, mathematical models play an indispensable role. In recent years, scientists from various disciplines have delved into and researched numerous biological models, (see [1,2,3] and references therein).

    The recent global health crisis, termed the COVID-19 pandemic, stems from the emergence of a novel coronavirus strain, SARS-CoV-2. This virus rapidly evolved into a significant worldwide concern. It has affected millions, placing an unparalleled burden on healthcare infrastructures and economies across the globe [4]. In the unyielding fight against this highly contagious and ever-evolving virus, mathematical modeling has proven indispensable. Offering quantitative tools to understand, simulate, and predict the virus's spread, these models have been instrumental in guiding public health measures and shaping policy decisions. Although mathematical modeling has been valuable in past epidemics, its significance has been magnified during the COVID-19 outbreak, where swift and informed decision-making has been crucial[5,6].

    Many systems pertinent to real-world scenarios exhibit crossover behavior. Modeling systems based on this behavior has historically posed significant challenges. The transition from Markovian to non-Markovian processes has unveiled a plethora of examples that highlight real-world complexities. A prime illustration of this is in epidemiology, where the propagation of contagious diseases and occasional chaos may be attributed to this transition. Numerous intricate real-world challenges, including those involving chaos, have been articulated using the frameworks of piecewise integral and differential operators [7]. The cited authors delineated three distinct scenarios to frame deterministic-stochastic chaotic models and undertook numerical explorations of these constructs. Additionally, piecewise differentiation has emerged as a potent tool in epidemiological modeling, especially when challenges are presented by crossover dynamics [8,9].

    Piecewise operators represent a novel class of operators established by Atangana et al. [10]. Traditional Mittag-Leffler or exponential mappings in fractional calculus need to provide a precise way to determine crossover time. A unique approach to piecewise derivation addressing this challenge was proposed in [10]. Piecewise differential equations offer insights into the present and serve as tools for future planning. Researchers employ these models to simulate diverse scenarios, such as potential virus resurgence and implications of new policy decisions. Active exploration of crossover behaviors with these operators is underway, with studies like [11,12] utilizing them to investigate qualitative characteristics of differential equations (DEs) and various infectious disease models. Further applications of piecewise operators are showcased in [13,14,15,16].

    Atangana et al. [9] extended the concept of epidemiology modeling to portray waves with varying patterns, introducing a novel approach to ensure the existence and uniqueness of system solutions. They present a piecewise numerical approach for deriving solutions, with an illustrative example compared against data from Turkey, Spain, and Czechia, concluding that this method offers a new perspective for understanding natural phenomena. Zeb et al. [17] introduces a piecewise mathematical model for COVID-19 that incorporates a quarantine category and vaccination strategies. This model is based on the SEIQR framework for epidemic modeling. The authors in [18] developed a mathematical model using the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative to assess the Omicron variant of COVID-19, exploring strategies for reducing transmission risk. They expanded this model into a piecewise fractional stochastic Atangana–Baleanu differential equation, applying it to South African COVID-19 case data, and presented detailed numerical solutions and graphical results. The authors in [19] formulated a new mathematical model to investigate COVID-19 infection dynamics using Caputo fractional differential equations and piecewise stochastic differential equations. They present numerical solutions and graphical results for critical parameters, demonstrating that isolating healthy individuals from various stages of infected individuals can significantly reduce infection rates.

    In this article, we introduce a COVID-19 model that comprises classes such as susceptible, exposed, symptomatic infectious, superspreaders (infectious but asymptomatic), hospitalized, recovery, and fatality. The model incorporates hybrid fractional order and variable order operators, and extends the stochastic differential equations with fractional Brownian motion. We introduce two numerical methods: the nonstandard modified Euler Maruyama method (NEMM) for solving the fractional stochastic model, and the Caputo proportional constant-Grünwald-Letnikov nonstandard finite difference method (CPC-GLNFDM) for the fractional and variable order deterministic models. Numerical simulations are conducted to validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. These experiments further provide insights into various phenomena, including crossover and stochastic processes.

    The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 provides some basic concepts and preliminaries, formulation of the proposed model using the piecewise calculus, the existence and uniqueness of the model, and a numerical method for approximating the model's solutions. Numerical simulations, which validate the results from earlier sections, can be found in Section 3. In the end, Section 4 offers concluding observations.

    Here, we define key terms from fractional calculus that will be consistently used in this study.

    Definition 1. [20] Assuming f(τ) is a continuous function, given Ω=[μ,ν], <μ<ν<+, βC, (β)>0. Below, the definitions are provided for the Riemann-Liouville derivatives, encompassing both the left and right variants, of order β:

    μDβτf(τ)=1Γ(nβ)(ddτ)nτμf(s)(τs)1n+βds,  τ>μ,   (2.1)
    τDβνf(τ)=1Γ(nβ)(ddτ)nντf(s)(sτ)1n+βds,  τ<ν (2.2)

    where n=[(β)]+1.

    Definition 2. [20,21] Let Ω=[μ,ν], where <μ<ν<+, and let βC with (β)>0. The left and right Riemann-Liouville integrals of order β for a continuous function f(τ) are defined as:

    RLμIβτf(τ)=μDβτf(τ)=1Γ(β)[τμf(s)(τs)β1ds],    τ>μ,   (2.3)
    RLτIβνf(τ)=τDβνf(τ)=1Γ(β)[ντf(s)(τs)β1ds]     τ<ν (2.4)

    where 0<β<1.

    Definition 3. [20] Within the field of complex numbers C, the descriptions of Caputo derivatives on the left and right sides of order β for a function f(τ) are given by

    (CDβμ+f)(τ)=(CμDβτf)(τ)=1Γ(nβ)τμfn(s)(τξ)1n+βds,  τ>μ,    (2.5)
    (CDβνf)(τ)=(CτDβνf)(τ)=(1)nΓ(nβ)ντfn(s)(sτ)1n+βds,   τ<ν (2.6)

    where n=[(β)]+1, (β)N0.

    Definition 4. [22] In general, the operator known as the Caputo Proportional Fractional Hybrid (CP) operator is characterized as

    CP0Dβτy(τ)=(τ0(y(s)K1(s,β)+y(s)K0(s,β))(τs)βds)1Γ(1β),=(K1(τ,β)y(τ)+K0(τ,β)y(τ))(τβΓ(1β)) (2.7)

    where K0(β,τ)=βτ(1β), K1(β,τ)=(1β)τβ, and 0<β<1.

    Definition 5. [22] Fractional hybrid operators with a Caputo proportional constant (CPC) are described as

    CPC0Dβτy(τ)=(τ0(τs)β(y(s)K1(β)+y(s)K0(β))ds)1Γ(1β)=K1(β)RL0I1βτy(τ)+K0(β)C0Dβτy(τ) (2.8)

    where K0(β)=βQ(1β), K1(β)=(1β)Qβ are kernels Q is a constant, and 0<β<1.

    Definition 6. [22] The variable-order fractional Caputo proportional operator (CP) is given as follows:

    CP0Dβ(τ)τy(τ)=t0(Γ(1β(τ)))1(τs)β(τ)(y(s)K0(s,β(τ))+y(s)K1(s,β(τ)))ds,=(Γ(1β(τ))1τβ(τ))(y(τ)K0(t,β(τ))+y(τ)K1(t,β(τ))).

    Here, K1(β(τ),τ)=(β(τ)+1)τβ(τ),K0(β(τ),τ)=τ(1β(τ))β(τ), and 1>β(τ)>0. Alternatively, the constant proportional Caputo (CPC) variable-order fractional hybrid operator can be formulated as follows:

    CPC0Dβ(τ)τy(τ)=(t0(τs)β(τ)1Γ(1β(τ))(K1(β(τ))y(s)+y(s)K0(β(τ)))ds)=K1(β(τ))RL0I1β(τ)τy(τ)+K0(β(τ))C0Dβ(τ)τy(τ),

    where K0(β(τ))=Q(β(τ)+1)β(τ), K1(β(τ))=Qβ(τ)(β(τ)+1), Q is a constant, and 1>β(τ)>0. Moreover, its inverse operator is:

    CPC0Iβ(τ)ty(t)=(τ0exp[K1(β(τ))K0(β(τ))(τs)]RL0D1β(τ)τy(s)ds)1K0(β(τ)).

    The concept of a piecewise differential equation is utilized to expand upon the COVID-19 pandemic model initially introduced in [23]. We address potential dimensional incompatibilities by introducing an auxiliary parameter, ϑ, to the fractional model. Consequently, the proposed model segments the population into eight classes: susceptible (S), exposed (E), symptomatic and infectious (I), superspreaders (P), infectious but asymptomatic (A), hospitalized (H), recovery (R), and fatality (F). The corresponding piecewise (fractional-variable order-stochastic) differential equations for the COVID-19 epidemic are presented as follows:

    {1ϑ1βCPC0DβτS(τ)=aISbHScPS,1ϑ1βCPC0DβτE(τ)=aIS+bHS+cPSdE,1ϑ1βCPC0DβτI(τ)=dEfI,1ϑ1βCPC0DβτP(τ)=gEλP,1ϑ1βCPC0DβτA(τ)=μE,1ϑ1βCPC0DβτH(τ)=v(P+I)H+uH,       0<τT1,0<β<1,1ϑ1βCPC0DβτR(τ)=f(P+I)+H,1ϑ1βCPC0DβτF(τ)=fI+P+uH (2.9)

    with initial conditions

    I(0)=I00, S(0)=S00,E(0)=E00,A(0)=A00,P(0)=P00,R(0)=R00,F(0)=F00,H(0)=H00. (2.10)
    {1ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τS(τ)=aISbHScPS,1ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τE(τ)=aIS+bHS+cPSdE,1ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τI(τ)=dEfI,1ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τP(τ)=gEλP,1ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τA(τ)=μE,1ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τH(τ)=v(P+I)H+uH,       T1<τT2,,0<β(τ)<11ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τR(τ)=f(P+I)+H,1ϑ1β(τ)CPC0Dβ(τ)τF(τ)=fI+P+uH, (2.11)
    I(T1)=I10, S(T1)=S10,E(T1)=E10,A(T1)=A10,P(T1)=P10,R(T1)=R10,F(T1)=F10,H(T1)=H10. (2.12)
    {dS=(aISbHScPS)dt+σ1S(τ)dBH1,dE=(aIS+bHS+cPSdE)dt+σ2E(τ)dBH2,dI=(dEfI)dt+σ3I(τ)dBH3,dP=(gEλP)dt+σ4P(τ)dBH4,dA=(μE)dt+σ5A(τ)dBH5,dH=(v(P+I)H+uH)dt+σ6H(τ)dBH6,       T2<τTf,dR=(f(P+I)+H)dt+σ7R(τ)dBH7,dF(τ)=(fI+P+uH)dt+σ8F(τ)dBH8, (2.13)
    I(T2)=I20, S(T2)=S20,E(T2)=E20,A(T2)=A20,P(T2)=P20,R(T2)=R20,F(T2)=F20,H(T2)=H20 (2.14)

    where σi and Bi(t), i=1,2,3,...,8 are the density of randomness and environmental noise, respectively, and H is the Hurst index.

    In the following, we demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of the system given by (2.9) and (2.10). However, before proceeding, it is essential to verify the conditions of Perov's theorem [24]. To do this, we first present preliminary results related to the Perov fixed point theorem and generalized Banach spaces. We refer the reader to [24] for a more detailed discussion.

    Definition 7. Consider E as a vector space with K as its field, which could be R or C. In such a scenario, one can define a generalized norm as a function acting on E

    G: E[0,+)nϕϕG=(ϕ1ϕn)

    characterized by the subsequent properties

    (i) For all ϕE; if ϕG=0Rn+, then ϕ=0E,

    (ii) aG=|a|ϕG for all ϕE and aK, and

    (iii) ϕ+ωGϕG+ωG for all ϕ,ωE.

    The pair (E,G) defines a generalized normed space. If the vector-valued metric space is complete, the space \((E, \|\cdot\|_{G}) \) is termed a generalized Banach space (GBS), characterized by \(\delta_{G}(\phi_{1}, \phi_{2}) = \| \phi_{1}-\phi_{2}\|_{G}\).

    Definition 8. Given a matrix ΔMn×n(R+), it is considered to converge to zero when

    ΔmOn, as m

    where On is denoted as the zero n×n matrix.

    Definition 9. Consider a generalized metric space \((E, \delta_{G}) \) and an operator \(N \) mapping \(E \) to itself. The operator \(N \) is termed a \(\varDelta \)-contraction with matrix \(\varDelta \) from \(\mathcal{M}_{n\times n}(\mathbb{R}_{+}) \) that tends towards \(\mathcal{O}_{n} \), provided that, for any \(\varrho, v \in E \), the following holds:

    δG(N(ϱ),N(v))ΔδG(ϱ,v).

    The following result is Perov's extension of the Banach contraction principle.

    Theorem 2.1. [24] Let E be a full generalized metric space and N:EE be an operator that is an M-contraction. Then, N has a single fixed point in E.

    Now, given that the systems (2.9) and (2.10) can be rewritten in the following classical form

    {CPCDβτX(τ)=ϑ1βF(X(τ)),X(0)=X0,0<τ<T1<, (2.15)

    where, the vector X(τ)=(S0,E0,I0,P0,A0,H0,R0,F0)τ and the operator F is defined as follows

    F(X)=(F1(X)F2(X)F3(X)F4(X)F5(X)F6(X)F7(X)F8(X))=(aISbHScPSaIS+bHS+cPSdEdEfIgEλPμEv(P+I)H+uHf(P+I)+HfI+P+uH). (2.16)

    Consider E=8i=1C([0,τ],R) to be a generalized Banach space when we endow it with the following generalized norm:

    .G:ER8+XXG=(SEIPAHRF).

    To show that systems (2.9) and (2.10) have a unique solution, we transform them into a fixed point problem for the operator N, defined by N:8i=1C([0,τ],R)→:8i=1C([0,τ],R),

    N(X(τ))=X(0)+ϑ1βK0(β)τ0exp(K1(β)K0(β(τ))(τs))RL0D1βτF(X(s))ds. (2.17)

    The next lemma is needed.

    Lemma 2.1. Assume a vector ΔR8 satisfies the given conditions

    Δ=(Δ1Δ2Δ3Δ4Δ5Δ6Δ7Δ8)ϑ1βΞmax(β)Ψmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|(aΔ3Δ1+bΔ6Δ1+cΔ4Δ1|aΔ3Δ1+bΔ6Δ1+cΔ4Δ1dΔ2|dΔ2fΔ3gΔ2λΔ4μΔ2|v(Δ4+Δ3)Δ6+uΔ6|f(Δ4+Δ3)+Δ6fΔ3+Δ4+uΔ6). (2.18)

    Then, the operator N maps the generalized ball ˉB(X0,Δ)E into itself.

    Next, we make sure that the operator F is G-Lipschitz.

    Lemma 2.2. The operator F defined in (2.16) is a G-Lipschitz operator; i.e., there exists a square matrix M6(R+) such that

    F(X)F(ˉX)GXˉXG.

    The proofs of the above two lemmas are stated in the Appendix. The next theorem ensures the existence and the uniqueness of the proposed model.

    Theorem 2.2. Assuming that the matrix

    ϑ1βΞmax(β)Ψmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|, (2.19)

    converges to O8, then there is a unique solution for the initial value problem given by (2.9) and (2.10), and the solution holds for all τ>0 in ˉB(X0,Δ).

    Proof. Further, we have for any X,ˉXˉB(X0,Δ), and by using Lemma 2.2,

    N(X)N(ˉX)G=ϑ1βK0(β)τ0exp(K1(β)K0(β)(τs))(RL0D1βτF(X(s))RL0D1βτF(ˉX(s)))dsGϑ1β|K0(β)|τ0|exp(K1(β)K0(β)(τs))|RL0D1βτF(X(s))RL0D1βτF(ˉX(s))Gdsϑ1βΞmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|τ0(τs)β2(F(X(s))F(ˉX(s)))dsGϑ1βΞmax(β)Ψmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|F(X)F(ˉX)Gϑ1βΞmax(β)Ψmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|XˉXG.

    Since the matrix ϑ1βΞmax(β)Ψmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)| converges to zero, the operator N is a G-contraction, and hence by applying Perov's fixed point theorem (2.1), systems (2.9) and (2.10) have only one solution in ˉB(X0,Δ).

    We propose an effective discretization for the examined cross-over system using the Caputo proportional constant-Grünwald-Letnikov nonstandard finite difference method (CPC-GLNFDM). The approach we take to addressing the subsequent linear cross-over model (including fractional and variable order, both deterministic and stochastic) is outlined as follows:

    (CPC0Dβτy)(τ)=ρy(τ),  0<τT1,  0<β1, ρ<0        y(0)=y0 (2.20)
    (CPC0Dβ(τ)τy)(τ)=ρy(τ),  T1<τT2,  0<β(τ)1, ρ<0            y(T1)=y1 (2.21)
    y(τ)=(ρy(τ)+σy(τ)dBH(τ),  T2<τTf,            y(T2)=y2, (2.22)

    where B(τ) represents the standard Brownian motion, σ, denotes the real constants or the intensity of the stochastic environment, and H is the Hurst index.

    The relation given by (2.8) can be expressed as follows:

    CPC0Dβτy(τ)=1Γ(1β)τ0(τs)β(K1(β)y(s)+K0(β)y(s))ds,=K1(β)RL0I1βτy(τ)+K0(β)C0Dβτy(τ),=K1(β)RL0Dβ1τy(τ)+K0(β)C0Dβτy(τ), (2.23)

    where K1(β) and K0(β) are kernels depending solely on β and K0(β)=βQ(1β), K1(β)=(1β)Qβ, Q is a constant, and ω0=1. Using the GLNFDM approximation, (2.23) can be discretized as follows:

    CPC0Dβτy(τ)|τ=τn=K1(β)(Θ(Δτ))β1(yn+1+n+1i=1ωiyn+1i)+K0(β)(Θ(Δτ))β(yn+1n+1i=1μiyn+1iqn+1y0) (2.24)

    where

    Θ(Δτ)=Δτ+O(Δτ2),...,0<Θ(Δτ)<1,Δτ0.

    Subsequently, (2.20) can be discretized as follows:

    K1(β)(Θ(Δτ))β1(yn+1+n+1i=1ωiyn+1i)+K0(β)(Θ(Δτ))β(yn+1n+1i=1μiyn+1iqn+1y0)=ρy(tn) (2.25)

    where ω0=1, ωi=(1βi)ωi1, τn=n(Θ(Δτ)),    Δτ=TfNn, Nn is a natural number. μi=(1)i1( βi), μ1=β, qi=iβΓ(1β), and i=1,2,...,n+1.

    In addition, we will proceed with the assumption that [25]

    0<μi+1<μi<...<μ1=β<1,
    0<qi+1<qi<...<q1=1Γ(β+1).

    Hence, if K1(β)=0 and K0(β)=1 in (2.25), then one has the discretization of the Caputo operator (C- GLNFDM) using the finite difference method.

    Additionally, (2.21) can be discretized as follows:

    K1(β(ti))(Θ(Δτ))β(ti)1(yn2+1+n2+1i=n+1ωiyn2+1i)+K0β(ti)(Θ(Δτ))β(ti)(yn2+1n2+1i=n+1μiyn2+1iqn2+1y0)=ρy(tn2) (2.26)

    where ωi=(1β(ti)i)ωi1, μi=(1)i1( β(ti)i), μ1=β(ti), qi=iβ(ti)Γ(1β(ti)), and we can discretize (2.22) using the nonstandard modified Euler-Maruyama method (NMEMM) [26] as follows:

    y(tn3+1)=y(tn3)+ρy(tn3)Θ(Δτ)+σy(tn3)ΔBn3+0.5y(tn3)Θ(Δτ)2H, H>0.5,    n3=n2,...,κ,     T2<τTf.

    To obtain the numerical solutions for the proposed piecewise models (2.9)–(2.14), we employ the following parameters: a=6.82621105, b=1.0648104, c=2.0478104, d=0.25, f=3.5, g=2.5104, λ=2.21, μ=0.10475, v=0.94, u=0.3. The initial conditions are set as follows: S(0)=59659, I(0)=1, E(0)=0, P(0)=5, A(0)=0, R(0)=0, H(0)=0, R(0)=0, F(0)=0, and T1=25,T2=50, and Tf=100, Θ(Δτ)=1eΔτ. The numerical results for (2.9)-(2.13) are graphically represented at various values of \(\beta \), \(\beta(\tau) \), \(\sigma_{i} \) (where \(i \) ranges from 1 to 8), and \(H^{\ast}(\tau) \). The simulations are conducted using the nonstandard Euler-Maruyama method (NEMM) (2.27) and the Caputo proportional constant-Grünwald-Letnikov nonstandard finite difference method CPC-GLNFDM (2.26). The dynamical behavior of the systems given by (2.9)–(2.13) is illustrated in Figures 1 through 5. It is observed that the crossover behavior is prominent around the values \(T_{1} = 25 \), \(T_{2} = 50 \), and \(T_{f} = 100 \). After these points, the dynamics exhibit multiplicity in their behavior. Figure 1 illustrates the simulation for (2.9)–(2.13) with β(τ)=0.800.003t and H=0.7, considering various values of β and σi. Figure 2 demonstrates how the solutions behave under various scenarios, with different values of β(τ) and for β=0.8, and H=0.7. Figure 3 illustrates the change in the behavior of the solutions (2.9)–(2.13) when employing different values of H, β(τ)=0.750.001(cos2(τ/10)), and β=0.80,σi=0.05. Figure 4 illustrates the behavior of the solution of (2.9)–(2.13) for different values of H and σi β(τ)=0.750.001(cos2(τ/10)) and β=0.80. To illustrate how parameter values σi and H influence the results, we refer to Figure 5. From the simulation, we discerned several nuanced insights of the model, which proved invaluable insights from both biological and mathematical perspectives.

    Figure 1.  Simulation for (2.11–2.13) at different values of β and β(τ)=0.800.0003τ, H=0.7, σ1=0.05,σ2=0.05,σ3=0.05, σ4=0.05,σ5=0.05,σ6=0.05, σ7=0.05,σ8=0.05.
    Figure 2.  Simulation for (2.11–2.13) at different values of β(τ) and β=0.80 H=0.7, σi=0.05, i=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8.
    Figure 3.  Simulation for (2.11–2.13) at different values of H, β(τ)=0.750.001(cos2(τ/10)), and β=0.80 σi=0.05, i=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8.
    Figure 4.  Simulation for (2.11–2.13) at different values of H, β(τ)=0.750.001(cos2(τ/10)), and β=0.80, σ1=0.5,σ2=0.04,σ3=0.01,σ4=0.5,σ5=0.04,σ6=0.01,σ7=0.5,σ8=0.04.
    Figure 5.  Simulation for (2.11–2.13) at different values of H, β(τ)=0.70.001τ, and β=0.80 σ1=0.5,σ2=0.04,σ3=0.01,σ4=0.5,σ5=0.04,σ6=0.01,σ7=0.5,σ8=0.04.

    In conclusion, a new mathematical model of piecewise fractional and variable-order differential equations and the fractional stochastic derivative of the COVID-19 epidemic has been developed. Moreover, two numerical techniques are constructed to solve the proposed model. These methods are the nonstandard modified Euler Maruyama method for the fractional stochastic model and the Caputo proportional constant-Grünwald-Letnikov nonstandard finite difference method for the fractional and variable-order deterministic models. Utilizing this approach has enriched our understanding of the dynamics underlying this intricate health crisis. Furthermore, by integrating fractional Brownian motion into stochastic differential equations, we have gleaned valuable insights into the unpredictable nature of infectious disease propagation. The development of two specialized numerical methods, namely, Caputo's proportional constant-Grünwald-Letnikov nonstandard finite difference method and the nonstandard modified Euler Maruyama technique, enabled us to delve deeply into the behavior of our extended models. Through a series of numerical tests, we have showcased the efficiency of these methods and garnered robust empirical support for our theoretical findings. Perhaps most crucially, our research has paved new pathways for studying the COVID-19 pandemic. The extended models afford the flexibility to examine a broad spectrum of behaviors, from deterministic patterns to stochastic processes. This allows for more adaptive strategies and interventions as circumstances change. This study stands as a substantial contribution to epidemiology, offering indispensable tools and insights that can guide public health decisions and aid in addressing the ongoing global health crisis.

    The authors declare they have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.

    The authors are thankful to the Deanship of Scientific Research at Najran University for funding this work under the Research Priorities and Najran Research funding program grant code (NU/NRP/SERC/12/3).

    The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

    Proof of Lemma 2.1. Let XˉB(X0,Δ), then

    N(X)X0G=ϑ1βK0(β)τ0exp(K1(β)K0(β)(τs))RL0D1βτF(X(s))dsGϑ1β|K0(β)|τ0|exp(K1(β)K0(β)(τs))|RL0D1βτF(X(s))Gdsϑ1βΞmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|τ0(τs)β2F(X(s))dsGϑ1βΞmax(β)Ψmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|CF

    where

    CF=supXˉB(X0,Δ)F(X)Gϑ1βΞmax(β)Ψmax(β)Γ(β1)|K0(β)|(aΔ3Δ1+bΔ6Δ1+cΔ4Δ1|aΔ3Δ1+bΔ6Δ1+cΔ4Δ1dΔ2|dΔ2fΔ3gΔ2λΔ4μΔ2|v(Δ4+Δ3)Δ6+uΔ6|f(Δ4+Δ3)+Δ6fΔ3+Δ4+uΔ6)

    and this complete the proof.

    Proof of Lemma 2.2. Let X = (\mathcal{S}, \mathcal{E}, \mathcal{I}, \mathcal{P}, \mathcal{A}, \mathcal{H}, \mathcal{R}, \mathcal{F}) , \bar{X} = (\bar{\mathcal{S}}, \bar{\mathcal{E}}, \bar{\mathcal{I}}, \bar{\mathcal{P}}, \bar{\mathcal{A}}, \bar{\mathcal{H}}, \bar{\mathcal{R}}, \bar{\mathcal{F}})\in \bar{B}(X_0, \varDelta) and we have

    \begin{aligned} | \mathfrak{F}_{1}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{1}(\bar{X})|& = |-a \mathcal{I}\mathcal{S}-b\mathcal{H}\mathcal{S}-c\mathcal{P}\mathcal{S} +a \bar{\mathcal{I}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}+b\bar{\mathcal{H}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}+c\bar{\mathcal{P}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}|\\&\leq a|( \bar{\mathcal{I}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{I}}{\mathcal{S}})|+b|(\bar{\mathcal{H}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{H}}{\mathcal{S}})|+c|(\bar{\mathcal{P}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{P}}{\mathcal{S}})|. \end{aligned}

    Also, we have for all \wp_{1}, \, \wp_{2}, \, \upsilon_{1}, \, \upsilon_{2} \in \mathbb{R}

    | \wp_{1}\upsilon_{1}-\wp_{2}\upsilon_{2}| = \frac{1}{2} \Big[ (\wp_{1}-\wp_{2})(\upsilon_{1}+\upsilon_{2})+(\wp_{1}+\wp_{2})(\upsilon_{1}-\upsilon_{2})\Big]

    and combining that with Lemma 2.1 we find

    \begin{equation} \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{1}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{1}(\bar{X})\|_\infty&\leq\frac{a}{2} \Big\| (\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}})(\bar{\mathcal{I}}+{\mathcal{I}})+(\bar{\mathcal{I}}-{\mathcal{I}})(\bar{\mathcal{S}}+{\mathcal{S}})\Big\|_\infty\\&+\frac{b}{2} \Big\| (\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}})(\bar{\mathcal{H}}+{\mathcal{H}})+(\bar{\mathcal{H}}-{\mathcal{H}})(\bar{\mathcal{S}}+{\mathcal{S}})\Big\|_\infty\\&+\frac{c}{2} \Big\| (\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}})(\bar{\mathcal{P}}+{\mathcal{P}})+(\bar{\mathcal{P}}-{\mathcal{P}})(\bar{\mathcal{S}}+{\mathcal{S}})\Big\|_\infty\\&\leq a \Big( \varDelta_{1}\| \bar{\mathcal{I}}-{ \mathcal{I}}\|_\infty+ \varDelta_{3}\|\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}}\|_\infty\Big)\\&+b \Big( \varDelta_{1}\|\bar{\mathcal{H}}-{\mathcal{H}}\|_\infty+ \varDelta_{6}\|\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}}\|_\infty\Big)\\&+c \Big( \varDelta_{1} \|\bar{\mathcal{P}}-{\mathcal{P}}\|_\infty+ \varDelta_{4}\|\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}}\|_\infty\Big)\\&\leq \varDelta_{1} \Big(a\|\bar{\mathcal{I}}-{ \mathcal{I}}\|_\infty+b\|\bar{\mathcal{H}}-{\mathcal{H}}\|_\infty+c \|\bar{\mathcal{P}}-{\mathcal{P}}\|_\infty\Big)\\&+ \Big(a \varDelta_{3}+b \varDelta_{6}+c \varDelta_{4}\Big)\|\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}}\|_\infty. \end{aligned} \end{equation} (4.1)

    Also, we have

    \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{2}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{2}(\bar{X})\|_\infty& = \|a \mathcal{I}\mathcal{S}+b\mathcal{H}\mathcal{S}+c\mathcal{P}\mathcal{S} -d\mathcal{E} -a \bar{\mathcal{I}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}-b\bar{\mathcal{H}}\bar{\mathcal{S}}-c\bar{\mathcal{P}}\bar{\mathcal{S}} +d\bar{ \mathcal{E}}\|_\infty\\&\leq \varDelta_{1} \Big(a\|\bar{\mathcal{I}}-{ \mathcal{I}}\|_\infty+b\|\bar{\mathcal{H}}-{\mathcal{H}}\|_\infty+c \|\bar{\mathcal{P}}-{\mathcal{P}}\|_\infty\Big) +d\| \mathcal{E}-\bar{ \mathcal{E}}\|_\infty\\&+ \Big(a \varDelta_{3}+b \varDelta_{6}+c \varDelta_{4}\Big)\|\bar{\mathcal{S}}-{\mathcal{S}}\|_\infty. \end{aligned}

    The linearity of the operators \mathfrak{F}_{3}, \, \mathfrak{F}_{4}, \, \mathfrak{F}_{5}, \ \ \mathfrak{F}_{6}, \, \mathfrak{F}_{7}, \ \ \mathfrak{F}_{8}

    \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{3}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{3}(\bar{X})\|_\infty&\leq d\| \mathcal{E}-\bar{ \mathcal{E}}\|_\infty+ f \|{\mathcal{I}}-\bar{ \mathcal{I}}\|_\infty \end{aligned}
    \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{4}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{4}(\bar{X})|&\leq g\| \mathcal{E}-\bar{\mathcal{ E}}\|_\infty+ \lambda \|{\mathcal{P}}-\bar{\mathcal{P}}\|_\infty \end{aligned}
    \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{5}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{5}(\bar{X})|&\leq \mu\| \mathcal{E}-\bar{ \mathcal{E}}\|_\infty, \end{aligned}
    \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{6}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{6}(\bar{X})\|_\infty&\leq v\| \mathcal{P}-\bar{\mathcal{P}}\|_\infty+v\| \mathcal{I}-\bar{ \mathcal{I}}\|_\infty+|1-u|\| \mathcal{H}-\bar{\mathcal{H}}\|_\infty, \end{aligned}
    \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{7}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{7}(\bar{X})\|_\infty&\leq f\| \mathcal{P}-\bar{\mathcal{P}}\|_\infty+f\| \mathcal{I}-\bar{ \mathcal{I}}\|_\infty+\| \mathcal{H}-\bar{\mathcal{H}}\|_\infty, \end{aligned}
    \begin{aligned} \| \mathfrak{F}_{8}(X)-\mathfrak{F}_{8}(\bar{X})\|_\infty&\leq \| \mathcal{P}-\bar{\mathcal{P}}\|_\infty+f\| \mathcal{I}-\bar{ \mathcal{I}}\|_\infty+u\| \mathcal{H}-\bar{\mathcal{H}}\|_\infty. \end{aligned}

    By rewriting the above equations in matrix form we find

    \begin{equation*} \begin{pmatrix} \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{1}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{1}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{2}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{2}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{3}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{3}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{4}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{4}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{5}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{5}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{6}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{6}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{7}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{7}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert \mathfrak{F}_{8}({X})- \mathfrak{F}_{8}(\bar{{X}})\Vert_{\infty}\\ \end{pmatrix} \preccurlyeq \mho\begin{pmatrix} \Vert {\mathcal{S}}-\bar{{\mathcal{S}}}\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert {\mathcal{E}}-\bar{{\mathcal{E}}}\Vert_{\infty}\\\Vert {I}-\bar{{I}}\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert {\mathcal{P}}-\bar{{\mathcal{P}}}\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert {\mathcal{A}}-\bar{\mathcal{{A}}}\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert {\mathcal{H}}-\bar{{\mathcal{H}}}\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert {\mathcal{R}}-\bar{{\mathcal{R}}}\Vert_{\infty}\\ \Vert {\mathcal{F}}-\bar{{\mathcal{F}}}\Vert_{\infty}\\ \end{pmatrix} \end{equation*}

    where

    \mho = \left(\begin{array}{cccccccc} \Big(a \varDelta_{3}+b \varDelta_{6}+c \varDelta_{4}\Big)&0&a \varDelta_{1}&c \varDelta_{1}&0&b \varDelta_{1} &0&0\\ \Big(a \varDelta_{3}+b \varDelta_{6}+c \varDelta_{4}\Big)&d&a \varDelta_{1}&c \varDelta_{1}&0&b \varDelta_{1} &0&0\\ 0&d&f&0&0&0 &0&0\\ 0&g&0&\lambda&0&0 &0&0\\ 0&\mu&0&0&0 &0&0&0\\ 0&0&v&v&0&|u-1| &0&0\\ 0&0&f&f&0&1&0&0\\ 0&0&f&1&0&u &0&0\\ \end{array}\right).



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