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Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

  • Received: 11 March 2020 Accepted: 26 March 2020 Published: 07 April 2020
  • We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

    Citation: Zhihua Liu, Pierre Magal, Ousmane Seydi, Glenn Webb. Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17(4): 3040-3051. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020172

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  • We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.



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  • © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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