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Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach

1 CIMPA-Escuela de Matemática, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
2 Escuela de Salud Pública, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica

Special Issues: Inverse problems in the natural and social sciences

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016–2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the basic reproductive number, R₀, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the R₀ parameters.
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Keywords Zika virus; basic reproductive number; Approximate Bayesian Computation; public health; transmission dynamics; epidemic models; vector-borne diseases

Citation: Fabio Sanchez, Luis A. Barboza, Paola Vásquez. Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2019, 16(4): 2738-2755. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019136


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