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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2015, Volume 12, Issue 5: 1055-1063. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055
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Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction

  • 1.
    Department of Mathematics, Southeast Missouri State University, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701
  • Published: 01 June 2015

  • MSC : Primary: 92B05; Secondary: 62P10.

  • Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.

    Citation: Xiang-Sheng Wang, Luoyi Zhong. Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2015, 12(5): 1055-1063. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055

    Related Papers:

  • Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.


    加载中
    [1] PLOS Currents Outbreaks, 2014.
    [2] The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 196 (2007), S142-147.
    [3] Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/cumulative-cases-graphs.html. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.)
    [4] Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/healthcare-us/preparing/clinicians.html. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.)
    [5] PLOS Currents Outbreaks, (2014), 1-12.
    [6] Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28 (1990), 365-382.
    [7] Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12 (2006), 122-127.
    [8] Journal of Experimental Botany, 10 (1959), 290-301.
    [9] Mathematical Biosciences, 180 (2002), 29-48.
    [10] Journal of Theoretical Biology, 313 (2012), 12-19.
    [11] Available from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137376/1/roadmapsitrep_29Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.)
    [12] Available from: http://apps.who.int/ebola/en/current-situation. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.)
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  • © 2015 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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