Export file:

Format

  • RIS(for EndNote,Reference Manager,ProCite)
  • BibTex
  • Text

Content

  • Citation Only
  • Citation and Abstract

HIV/AIDS epidemic in India and predicting the impact of the national response: Mathematical modeling and analysis

1. Mathematical Institute, Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Oxford, 24-29 St Giles', Oxford, OX1 3LB
2. Department of Medicine, Christian Medical College, Vellore
3. Member, National AIDS Control Programmme Planning Team, Currently with Global AIDS Program, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, American Embassy New Delhi
4. Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, OX1 3LB Oxford

After two phases of AIDS control activities in India, the third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. Our focus here is to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) in India so that the results can assist the NACP III planning team to determine appropriate targets to be activated during the project period (2007-2012). We have constructed a dynamical model that captures the mixing patterns between susceptibles and infectives in both low-risk and high-risk groups in the population. Our aim is to project the HIV estimates by taking into account general interventions for susceptibles and additional interventions, such as targeted interventions among high risk groups, provision of anti-retroviral therapy, and behavior change among HIV-positive individuals. Continuing the current level of interventions in NACP II, the model estimates there will be 5.06 million PLHA by the end of 2011. If 50 percent of the targets in NACP III are achieved by the end of the above period then about 0.8 million new infections will be averted in that year. The current status of the epidemic appears to be less severe compared to the trend observed in the late 1990s. The projections based on the second phase and the third phase of the NACP indicate prevention programmes which are directed towards the general and high-risk populations, and HIV-positive individuals will determine the decline or stabilization of the epidemic. Model based results are derived separately for the revised HIV estimates released in 2007. According to revised projections there will be 2.08 million PLHA by 2012 if 50 percent of the targets in NACP III are reached. We perform a Monte Carlo procedure for sensitivity analysis of parameters and model validation. We also predict a positive role of implementation of anti-retroviral therapy treatment of 90 percent of the eligible people in the country. We present methods for obtaining disease progression parameters using convolution approaches. We also extend our models to age-structured populations.
  Figure/Table
  Supplementary
  Article Metrics

Keywords behavioral interventions.; anti-retroviral therapy; epidemic modeling

Citation: Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao, Kurien Thomas, Kurapati Sudhakar, Philip K. Maini. HIV/AIDS epidemic in India and predicting the impact of the national response: Mathematical modeling and analysis. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2009, 6(4): 779-813. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.779

 

This article has been cited by

  • 1. Kurien Thomas, Is barber shops a source of HIV transmission in India?, Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health, 2013, 1, 2, 53, 10.1016/j.cegh.2013.05.001
  • 2. Sharmistha Mishra, Richard Steen, Antonio Gerbase, Ying-Ru Lo, Marie-Claude Boily, Rupert Kaul, Impact of High-Risk Sex and Focused Interventions in Heterosexual HIV Epidemics: A Systematic Review of Mathematical Models, PLoS ONE, 2012, 7, 11, e50691, 10.1371/journal.pone.0050691
  • 3. Pratibha Rani, Divya Jain, Vinod Prakash Saxena, Stability Analysis of HIV/AIDS Transmission with Treatment and Role of Female Sex Workers, International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation, 2017, 18, 6, 10.1515/ijnsns-2015-0147
  • 4. Tunde T. Yusuf, Francis Benyah, Optimal strategy for controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS disease: a case study of South Africa, Journal of Biological Dynamics, 2012, 6, 2, 475, 10.1080/17513758.2011.628700
  • 5. Claudia Balotta, Carmela Sinisgalli, Alberto Gandolfi, Marco Franzetti, Giovanni Felici, Francesca Binda, Federico Papa, A simple model of HIV epidemic in Italy: The role of the antiretroviral treatment, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2017, 15, 1, 181, 10.3934/mbe.2018008
  • 6. Wen-Hsien Ho, Agnes Lai-Fong Chan, Hybrid Taguchi-Differential Evolution Algorithm for Parameter Estimation of Differential Equation Models with Application to HIV Dynamics, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2011, 2011, 1, 10.1155/2011/514756
  • 7. Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao, Philip K. Maini, , UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics, 2016, Chapter 33, 257, 10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

Reader Comments

your name: *   your email: *  

Copyright Info: 2009, , licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licese (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

Download full text in PDF

Export Citation

Copyright © AIMS Press All Rights Reserved