Research article

On stiff, fuzzy IRD-14 day average transmission model of COVID-19 pandemic disease

  • Received: 05 June 2020 Accepted: 08 July 2020 Published: 14 July 2020
  • COVID-19, a new pandemic disease is becoming one of the major threats for surviving. Many new models are arrived to study the disease mathematically. Here we are introducing a new model in which instead of studying a day by day changes we are studying the average of 14 day transmission because its life or the patients incubation period is about an average of 14 days. Also, since this is pandemic, and being not aware of susceptible population among the world's population, we considered the model without S-susceptible population. i.e., IRD-Infectious, Recovered, Death-model. In this new model, we are also introducing a new method of calculating new number called N0-average transmission number. This is used to study the average spread of infection instead of basic reproduction number R0. The motto of this paper is not to predict the daily cases but to control the current spread of disease and deaths by identifying the threshold number, exceeding which will increase the spread of infection and number of deaths due to this pandemic. Also if the 14 day average IRD-populations are maintained under this threshold number, will definitely control this pandemic disease globally. Stability analysis and test for stiff system of differential equations are studied. Our main aim is to present the medical world, a threshold population of infected, recovered and death cases for every average of 14 days to quickly overcome this pandemic disease COVID-19.

    Citation: Prasantha Bharathi Dhandapani, Dumitru Baleanu, Jayakumar Thippan, Vinoth Sivakumar. On stiff, fuzzy IRD-14 day average transmission model of COVID-19 pandemic disease[J]. AIMS Bioengineering, 2020, 7(4): 208-223. doi: 10.3934/bioeng.2020018

    Related Papers:

  • COVID-19, a new pandemic disease is becoming one of the major threats for surviving. Many new models are arrived to study the disease mathematically. Here we are introducing a new model in which instead of studying a day by day changes we are studying the average of 14 day transmission because its life or the patients incubation period is about an average of 14 days. Also, since this is pandemic, and being not aware of susceptible population among the world's population, we considered the model without S-susceptible population. i.e., IRD-Infectious, Recovered, Death-model. In this new model, we are also introducing a new method of calculating new number called N0-average transmission number. This is used to study the average spread of infection instead of basic reproduction number R0. The motto of this paper is not to predict the daily cases but to control the current spread of disease and deaths by identifying the threshold number, exceeding which will increase the spread of infection and number of deaths due to this pandemic. Also if the 14 day average IRD-populations are maintained under this threshold number, will definitely control this pandemic disease globally. Stability analysis and test for stiff system of differential equations are studied. Our main aim is to present the medical world, a threshold population of infected, recovered and death cases for every average of 14 days to quickly overcome this pandemic disease COVID-19.
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    Acknowledgment



    This research paper was not supported by any funds or grants from any government or non-government sectors. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions in making the paper a better one.

    Conflict of interest



    All authors declare no conflict of interest.

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    © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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