Research article

Global recessions and booms: what do Probit models tell us?

  • Received: 08 October 2018 Accepted: 29 March 2019 Published: 08 April 2019
  • JEL Codes: C34, C35, E32

  • We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that especially activity-driven variables are important indicators for the turning points. Moreover, we identify similarities and differences between the different regions in this respect.

    Citation: Ursel Baumann, Ramón Gómez Salvador, Franz Seitz. Global recessions and booms: what do Probit models tell us?[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2019, 3(1): 187-200. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2019.1.187

    Related Papers:

  • We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that especially activity-driven variables are important indicators for the turning points. Moreover, we identify similarities and differences between the different regions in this respect.


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  • © 2019 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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