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Global recessions and booms: what do Probit models tell us?

1 European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
2 Weiden Technical University of Applied Sciences, Weiden, Germany

We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that especially activity-driven variables are important indicators for the turning points. Moreover, we identify similarities and differences between the different regions in this respect.
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