Research article Special Issues

The memory of volatility

  • Received: 04 August 2017 Accepted: 26 September 2017 Published: 13 March 2018
  • JEL Codes: G11

  • The focus of the volatility literature on forecasting and the predominance of the conceptually simpler HAR model over long memory stochastic volatility models has led to the fact that the actual degree of memory estimates has rarely been considered. Estimates in the literature range roughly between 0.4 and 0.6 -that is from the higher stationary to the lower non-stationary region. This difference, however, has important practical implications -such as the existence or nonexistence of the fourth moment of the return distribution. Inference on the memory order is complicated by the presence of measurement error in realized volatility and the potential of spurious long memory. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the memory in variances of international stock indices and exchange rates. On the one hand, we find that the variance of exchange rates is subject to spurious long memory and the true memory parameter is in the higher stationary range. Stock index variances, on the other hand, are free of low frequency contaminations and the memory is in the lower non-stationary range. These results are obtained using state of the art local Whittle methods that allow consistent estimation in presence of perturbations or low frequency contaminations.

    Citation: Kai R. Wenger, Christian H. Leschinski, Philipp Sibbertsen. The memory of volatility[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2018, 2(1): 622-644. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2018.1.137

    Related Papers:

  • The focus of the volatility literature on forecasting and the predominance of the conceptually simpler HAR model over long memory stochastic volatility models has led to the fact that the actual degree of memory estimates has rarely been considered. Estimates in the literature range roughly between 0.4 and 0.6 -that is from the higher stationary to the lower non-stationary region. This difference, however, has important practical implications -such as the existence or nonexistence of the fourth moment of the return distribution. Inference on the memory order is complicated by the presence of measurement error in realized volatility and the potential of spurious long memory. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the memory in variances of international stock indices and exchange rates. On the one hand, we find that the variance of exchange rates is subject to spurious long memory and the true memory parameter is in the higher stationary range. Stock index variances, on the other hand, are free of low frequency contaminations and the memory is in the lower non-stationary range. These results are obtained using state of the art local Whittle methods that allow consistent estimation in presence of perturbations or low frequency contaminations.
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    © 2018 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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