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US Implied Volatility as A predictor of International Returns

Mehmet F. Dicle

*Corresponding author: Mehmet F. Dicle mfdicle@gmail.com


This study provides evidence of the US implied volatility’s e ect on international equitymarkets’ returns. This evidence has two main implications: i) investors may find that foreign equityreturns adjusting to US implied volatility may not provide true diversification benefits, and ii) foreignequity returns may be predicted using US implied volatility. Our sample includes US volatility index(VIX) and major equity indexes in twenty countries for the period between January, 2000 throughJuly, 2017. VIX leads eighteen of the international markets and Granger causes seventeen of themarkets after controlling for the S&P-500 index returns and the 2007/2008 US financial crisis. USinvestors looking to diversify US risk may find that international equities may not provide intendeddiversification benefits. Our evidence provides support for predictability of international equity returnsbased on US volatility.

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