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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2013, Volume 10, Issue 3: 625-635. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625
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Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM

  • 1.
    Department of Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, 110 MGB, Norfolk, Virginia 23529
  • Received: 01 June 2012 Accepted: 29 June 2018 Published: 01 April 2013

  • MSC : Primary: 92B05; Secondary: 90B15.

  • Ticks and tick-borne diseases have been on the move throughout the UnitedState over the past twenty years. We use an agent-based model, TICKSIM,to identify the key parameters that determine the success of invasionof the tick and if that is successful, the succees of the tick-bornepathogen. We find that if an area has competent hosts, an initialpopulation of ten ticks is predicted to always establish a newpopulation. The establishment of the tick-borne pathogen depends onthree parameters: the initial prevalence in the ten founding ticks,the probability that a tick infects the longer-lived hosts and theprobability that a tick infects the shorter-lived hosts. These resultsindicate that the transmission rates to hosts in thenewly established area can be used to predict the potential risk ofdisease to humans.

    Citation: Holly Gaff, Robyn Nadolny. Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(3): 625-635. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625

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  • Ticks and tick-borne diseases have been on the move throughout the UnitedState over the past twenty years. We use an agent-based model, TICKSIM,to identify the key parameters that determine the success of invasionof the tick and if that is successful, the succees of the tick-bornepathogen. We find that if an area has competent hosts, an initialpopulation of ten ticks is predicted to always establish a newpopulation. The establishment of the tick-borne pathogen depends onthree parameters: the initial prevalence in the ten founding ticks,the probability that a tick infects the longer-lived hosts and theprobability that a tick infects the shorter-lived hosts. These resultsindicate that the transmission rates to hosts in thenewly established area can be used to predict the potential risk ofdisease to humans.


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    3. Marina E. Eremeeva, Gregory A. Dasch, Challenges Posed by Tick-Borne Rickettsiae: Eco-Epidemiology and Public Health Implications, 2015, 3, 2296-2565, 10.3389/fpubh.2015.00055
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    7. Silas W. Mutizhe, Lindah Mhlanga, Rudo Sithole, Banele T. Maya, Artwell Sibanda, Protect Mpofu, Spatio‐temporal variation in tick community composition and abundance in a wildlife–livestock interface within Nyanga National Park, Zimbabwe, 2022, 60, 0141-6707, 607, 10.1111/aje.12932
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  • © 2013 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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