Citation: Yongli Cai, Yun Kang, Weiming Wang. Global stability of the steady states of an epidemic model incorporating intervention strategies[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2017, 14(5&6): 1071-1089. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2017056
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Classical epidemic models provide essential frames in studying the dynamics of disease transmission in the filed of theoretical epidemiology. An interesting topic in the research of infectious diseases is to understand how intervention strategies affect the relationships between individual-level processes and ecological dynamics via the ordinary differential equations(ODEs) [19,3,41,44,4,32].
When an infectious disease appears and starts to spread in a region, the departments for disease control and prevention will do everything possible to prevent the disease spreading. The effects of intervention strategies, such as border screening, mask wearing, quarantine, isolation, or communications through the mass media (to communicate to the public the existence of an outbreak and possibly risk-reducing behavior), play an important role in administering efficient interventions to control disease spread and hopefully eliminate epidemic diseases [39,10,11,34]. Under intervention policies, for a very large number of infective individuals the infection force may decrease as the number of infective individuals increases, because in the presence of large number of infectious the population may tend to reduce the number of contacts per unit time. Individual's response to the threat of disease is dependent on their perception of risk, which is influenced by public and private information disseminated widely by the media [35,21]. Human behavior change consequently leads to reduction in number of real susceptible individuals or effective contact rates [43]. This has been interpreted as the "psychological" effect [41]. For instances, during the outbreak of SARS in 2003 [16] and the outbreak of H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009 [43,33,42], intervention strategies such as closing schools/ restaurants, postponing conferences, isolating infectives, etc., were taken by the Chinese government. These strategies greatly reduced the contact number per unit time, and therefore, decreased the incidence rate. This demonstrated the importance of considering the infection forces that include the adaptation of individuals to infection risks under intervention strategies [5]. Hence, to curb the spread of infectious diseases, it is then crucial to examine the role of intervention strategies on disease outbreaks.
The studies by Cui et al. [10,11] suggested that the population have done better to prevent the spreading of the disease with more preventive knowledge, which suggests that media coverage was critical in disease eradication. Khanam [19] showed that acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) awareness among married couples, media and education play a tremendous role in mounting AIDS awareness among the residents. Tang and Xiao [43,33] indicated that strict interventions (e.g., campus quarantine) were taken in mainland China to slow down the initial spread of the disease, and awareness through media and education plays a tremendous role in changing behaviors or contact patterns, and hence in limiting the spread of infectious disease. In particular, Wang [39] formulated and analyzed an SIRS model to study the impact of intervention strategies on the spread of an infectious disease and found that intervention strategies decrease endemic levels and tend to make the dynamical behavior of a disease evolution simpler. Cai et al. [5] extended a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation one through introducing random fluctuations and found that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak.
It's worthy to note that the environment factors considered in ODEs is homogeneous, while spatial variation is usually neglected. Therefore, the spatial spread of infectious and what drives it is less well understood [29]. And the spatial component of ecological interactions has been identified as an important factor [22,30]. Spatial diffusion and environmental heterogeneity have been recognized as important factors to affect the persistence and eradication of infectious diseases such as measles, tuberculosis, flu, etc., especially for vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue fever, West Nile virus, etc. More importantly, it is shown that the spatial transmission and environ-mental heterogeneity can decide the speed and pattern of the spatial spread of infectious diseases [15,13,14,1,2,18,24,25,26,27,40,36,6,8,7,38,20]. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the role of diffusion in the transmission and control of diseases in a heterogeneous environment [15].
In particularly, Fitzgibbon et al. [13,14] were the first to propose a family of SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) models that can include spatially-dependent terms for diffusion, convection, disease transmission, and population demography. After assuming that rates of both transmission
{∂S∂t=dSΔS−β(x)SIS+I+γ(x)I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂I∂t=dIΔI+β(x)SIS+I−γ(x)I,x∈Ω,t>0, | (1) |
with a no-flux boundary condition (or Neumann boundary condition)
∂S∂n=∂I∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>0. | (2) |
For the sake of establishing the theoretical results, the authors in [2] introduced the basic reproduction number as
~R0=supφ∈H1(Ω),φ≠0{∫Ωβφ2∫ΩdI|∇φ|2+γφ2}, | (3) |
and showed that, if
And recently, Cai and Wang [6] investigated the dynamics of a parasite-host epidemiological model in a spatially heterogeneous environment and gave the existence of the endemic equilibrium and the global stability of the endemic equilibrium in the case of the death rate a constant. Kuniya and Wang [20] constructed Lyapunov functions for the global stability analysis of equilibria of a spatially diffusive SIR epidemic model for two special cases, that is, the case of no diffusive susceptible individuals and that of no diffusive infective individuals. Furthermore, Huang et al. [18] studied two modified SIS diffusion models with the Dirichlet boundary condition
Based on the discussions above, in this paper, we will focus on the global stability analysis of the steady states for a general SIS epidemiological model with infection force under intervention strategies in a spatially heterogeneous environment. The rest of this article is organized as follows: In Section 2, we establish an SIS epidemic model in a spatially heterogeneous environment. In Section 3, we give some preliminaries. In Section 4, we accomplish our main results. In Section 5, we give some numerical results to show the relation between basic reproduction number with the diffusion and spatial heterogeneity. And in the last section, Section 6, we provide a brief discussion and the summary of our main results.
Suppose that the total population (
(H1)
(H2) There is a
In epidemiology, these assumptions describe the effect of intervention strategies determining by a critical level of invectives
Example 1. Saturated incidence rate:
Example 2. Incidence rates with "media coverage"[11]:
Let
{∂S∂t=dΔS+Λ(x)−β(x)If(x,I)S−μ(x)S+γ(x)I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂I∂t=dΔI+β(x)If(x,I)S−μ(x)I−γ(x)I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂S∂n=∂I∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>0,S(x,0)=S0(x)≥0,I(x,0)=I0(x)≥0,x∈Ω. | (4) |
where
(ⅰ)
∫ˉΩI0(x)dx>0withS0(x)≥0andI0(x)≥0forx∈Ω. |
(ⅱ)
(ⅲ)
We are interested in the steady state solutions of model (4). Thus we will concentrate on the following strongly coupled elliptic system
{dΔS+Λ(x)−β(x)If(x,I)S−μ(x)S+γ(x)I=0,x∈Ω,dΔI+β(x)If(x,I)S−μ(x)I−γ(x)I=0,x∈Ω,∂S∂n=∂I∂n=0,x∈∂Ω. | (5) |
Next, we introduce some related definitions:
A disease-free equilibrium (DFE) of model (4) is a solution of (5) in which
An endemic equilibrium (EE) of model (4) is a solution in which
The habitat
In this section, we collect some basic results concerning elliptic eigenvalue problems and linear parabolic equations, which will be used in the proofs of our main results.
For a closed linear operator
s(A)=sup{Re(λ)|λ∈σ(A)}, |
where
D(dΔ+q)=H2n(Ω):={ϕ∈H2(Ω)|∂ϕ∂n=0on∂Ω},(dΔ+q)ϕ(x)=dΔϕ(x)+q(x)ϕ(x)(x∈Ω)forϕ∈H2n(Ω), |
where
Concerning the spectral bound of the operator
λ∗=−inf{∫Ωd|∇ϕ|2−qϕ2|ϕ∈H1(Ω),∫Ωϕ2=1}, | (6) |
then
As an immediate consequence of Lemma 3.1, we have the following result (see [23]):
Corollary 1. Let
‖T(t)‖L(L2(Ω))≤Ceλt,t≥0. |
In what follows, we only prove the convergence in
‖m‖=‖m‖L2(Ω),‖m‖∞=maxx∈ˉΩm(x),m_=minx∈ˉΩm(x). |
In this subsection, we prove the global existence of solutions to model (4). We first give the following Lemma.
Lemma 4.1. Consider the following system
{∂N∂t=dΔN+Λ(x)−μ(x)N,x∈Ω,t>0,∂N∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>0,N(x,0)=N0(x)≥0,x∈Ω, | (7) |
then model (7) admits a unique positive steady state
{dΔS∗+Λ(x)−μ(x)S∗=0,x∈Ω,∂S∗∂n=0,x∈∂Ω. | (8) |
Proof. The proof of the existence and uniqueness of positive steady state is based upon the super-solution [9]. Now let us prove global stability. Set
{∂ˆN∂t−dΔˆN=−μ(x)ˆN,x∈Ω,t>0,∂ˆN∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>0,ˆN(x,0)=N0(x)−S∗,x∈Ω. |
Let
‖ˆN(⋅,t)‖=‖U(t)ˆN(⋅,0)‖≤Ce−λt‖ˆN(⋅,0)‖→0,ast→∞. |
It follows that
Next, we give the results about the existence and uniqueness of the global solutions of model (4).
Theorem 4.2. For every initial value function, model (4) has a unique positive solution
Proof. By the maximum principle [28], the populations
In this subsection, we first identify the basic reproduction number and then study the stability of DFE of model (4).
It follows from Lemma 4.1 that
{∂S∂t=dΔS−μ(x)S+(γ(x)−β(x)S∗f(x,0))I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂I∂t=dΔI+(β(x)S∗f(x,0)−μ(x)−γ(x))I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂S∂n=∂I∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>0. | (9) |
Then we get the following linear eigenvalue problem
{λφ=dΔφ−μ(x)φ+(γ(x)−β(x)S∗f(0))ψ,x∈Ω,λψ=dΔψ+(β(x)S∗f(x,0)−μ(x)−γ(x))ψ,x∈Ω,∂φ∂n=∂ψ∂n=0,x∈∂Ω. | (10) |
Let
λ∗=−infω∈H1(Ω){∫Ωd|∇ω|2−(β(x)S∗f(x,0)−μ(x)−γ(x))ω2,∫Ωω2=1}. | (11) |
By using the next generation approach for heterogenous populations [12,37] and spatial heterogenous populations [2,26,40], we define the basic reproduction number
R0=supω∈H1(Ω),ω≠0{∫Ωβ(x)S∗f(x,0)ω2∫Ωd|∇ω|2+(μ(x)+γ(x))ω2}. | (12) |
In the spatially homogeneous case, i.e.,
R0=Λβμf(0)(μ+γ). |
By Lemma 2.2, 2.3 in [2] and Lemma 3.1, we have:
Theorem 4.3. The following statements are true:
(ⅰ)
(ⅱ)
R0→maxx∈ˉΩ{β(x)S∗f(x,0)(μ(x)+γ(x))}asd→0, |
and
R0→∫Ω(β(x)S∗f(x,0))dx∫Ω(μ(x)+γ(x))dxasd→∞; |
(ⅲ) In a high-risk domain,
(ⅳ) In a low-risk domain, then the equation
The proof is similar to that in [15,2,24] and hence we omit it here. Following, we show properties of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE), including existence, uniqueness, and stability.
Theorem 4.4. For model (4), there exists a unique DFE
{−dΔS=Λ(x)−μ(x)S=0,x∈Ω,∂S∂n=0,x∈∂Ω, | (13) |
if
Proof. Suppose that
S(x,t)≤N(x,t)<S∗(x)+ϵ,forallx∈ˉΩandt≥T. |
Obviously,
{∂I∂t−dΔI≤(β(x)(S∗+ε)f(x,0)−μ(x)−γ(x))I,x∈Ω,t>T,∂I∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>T,I(x,T)≥0,x∈∂Ω. | (14) |
Let
{∂Z∂t=dΔZ+(β(x)(S∗+ε)f(x,0)−μ(x)−γ(x))Z,x∈Ω,t≥T,∂Z∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t≥T. | (15) |
By the comparison principle,
‖I(⋅,t)‖≤‖Z(⋅,t)‖=‖U2(t)Z(⋅,0)‖≤Ce−λt‖I(⋅,0)‖→0,ast→∞, | (16) |
which implies that
‖(γ(x)−β(x)Sf(I))I‖≤Ce−λt,t>0, |
for some positive constants
{∂ˆS∂t−dΔˆS=−μˆS+(γ(x)−β(x)(ˆS+S∗)f(I))I,x∈Ω,∂ˆS∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,ˆS(x,0)=S0(x)−S∗,x∈Ω. | (17) |
Applying the formula of variation of constants [23] to the first equation of (17) and the above results, we obtain
‖ˆS(⋅,t)‖≤‖U(t)ˆS(⋅,0)‖+∫t0‖U(t−s)(γ−βˆS(⋅,t)f(I(⋅,t)))I(⋅,t)‖ds≤Ce−λt‖ˆS(⋅,0)‖+Cte−λt→0,ast→∞. |
Hence
Next, suppose that
dΔψ0+(β(x)S∗f(0)−μ(x)−γ(x))ψ0=λ0ψ0. |
Rewrite the first equation in (10) with
dΔφ−(μ(x)+λ0)φ=(β(x)S∗f(0)−μ(x)−γ(x))ψ0. | (18) |
It follows that (18) has a unique solution
In this subsection, we study the existence and global stability of EE for model (4), namely to prove Theorem 4.10.
Let
{∂N∂t=dΔN+Λ(x)−μ(x)N,x∈Ω,t>0,∂I∂t=dΔI+(β(x)Nf(x,I)−μ(x)−γ(x)−β(x)f(x,I)I)I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂N∂n=∂I∂n=0x∈∂Ω,t>0,N(x,0)=N0(x)=S0(x)+I0(x)≥0,I(x,0)=I0(x)≥0,x∈Ω. | (19) |
If
Lemma 4.5. Assume that
{G(I):=dΔI+g(x,I)I=0,x∈Ω,∂I∂n=0,x∈∂Ω. | (20) |
has a unique positive solution
g(x,I)=β(x)(S∗+ε)f(x,I)−μ(x)−γ(x)−β(x)f(x,I)I. |
Proof. By Theorem 4.3 (ⅰ),
G(I_)=dΔ(ρψ∗)+ρψ∗g(x,ρψ∗)=ρ(dΔψ∗+ψ∗(g(x,0)+∂g∂I(x,0)ρψ∗+O((ρψ∗)2))) |
=ρ(dΔψ∗+(β(x)(S∗+ε)f(0)−μ−γ)ψ∗+∂g∂I(x,0)ρψ∗2+O(ρ2ψ∗3))=ρ(˜λ−ρψ∗2β(x)(f(x,0)+(S∗+ε)f′(x,0))f2(0)+O(ρ2ψ∗3)). |
G(ˉI)=dΔS∗+S∗g(x,S∗)=dΔS∗−μ(x)S∗+S∗(εβ(x)f(I)−γ(x))=−Λ(x)+S∗(εβ(x)f(I)−γ(x))<0, |
and
In order to prove the uniqueness, we argue by contradiction. Suppose that model (20) has two positive solutions
{dΔIm+Img(x,Im)=0,x∈Ω,dΔIm+Img(x,Im)=0x∈Ω,∂Im∂n=∂Im∂n=0,x∈∂Ω. | (21) |
Multiplying the first equation of (21) by
∫ΩImImF(Im,Im)dx=0, | (22) |
where
F(Im,Im)=β(x)(S∗+ε−Im)f(Im)−β(x)(S∗+ε−Im)f(Im)=β(x)f(Im)f(Im)((S∗+ε−Im)(f(Im)−f(Im))+f(Im)(Im−Im))=β(x)(f(Im)−f(Im))f(Im)f(Im)(S∗+ε−Im+f(Im)(Im−Im)f(Im)−f(Im)). |
Hence, we can choose sufficiently small
From the comparison principle we infer that the following Lemma.
Lemma 4.6. Let
{∂N∂t=dΔN+Λ(x)−μ(x)N,x∈Ω,t>0,∂I∂t=dΔI+(1f(I)β(x)((S∗+ε)−I)−μ(x)−γ(x))I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂N∂n=∂I∂n=0x∈∂Ω,t>0, | (23) |
If
Lemma 4.7. ([18]) Consider the equation
{∂u∂t−dΔu=c(x)u+h1(x,t),x∈Ω,t>0,∂u∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>0. | (24) |
where
u(⋅,t)≥u(⋅,0),t∈[0,t0]. |
Recall that
s(dΔ+α1−μ)=0,s(dΔ+βS∗f(0)−μ−γ−α2)=0. | (25) |
We let
dΔϕ∗1+(α1−μ)ϕ∗1=0,dΔϕ∗2+(βS∗f(0)−μ−γ−α2)ϕ∗2=0, |
and
Lemma 4.8. For each fixed
Nδε(⋅,0)=δϕ∗1,Iδε(⋅,0)=δϕ∗2 |
is monotone increasing with respect to
Proof. Let
Λ(x)−α1δ∗ϕ∗1(x)>η,α2+β(x)εf(0)−(β(x)(S∗+ε))(δ∗ϕ∗2(x)f′(0)+O((δ∗ϕ∗2)2)f(0)f(δ∗ϕ∗2(x))−β(x)δ∗ϕ∗2(x)f(δ∗ϕ∗2(x))>η | (26) |
for
(Nδε(x,t),Iδε(x,t))→(δϕ∗1,δϕ∗2),ast→0 |
uniformly for
Λ(x)−α1Nδε(x,t)>η1,(x,t)∈[0,t1]×Ω,α2+β(x)εf(0)−(β(x)(S∗+ε))(f(Iδε(x,t))−f(0))f(0)f(Iδε(x,t))−β(x)Iδε(x,t)f(Iδε(x,t))>η1,(x,t)∈[0,t1]×Ω | (27) |
for some positive constants
{∂N∂t−dΔN=(α1−μ(x))N+h1(x,t),x∈Ω,t>0,∂I∂t−dΔI=(β(x)S∗f(0)−μ(x)−γ(x)−α2)I+h2(x,t),x∈Ω,t>0,∂N∂n=∂I∂n=0,x∈∂Ω,t>0. | (28) |
where
h1(x,t)=Λ(x)−α1N, |
h2(x,t)=I(α2+β(x)εf(0)−(β(x)(S∗+ε))(f(I)−f(0))f(0)f(I)−If(I)). |
It follows from (27) that
(Nδε(x,t),Iδε(x,t))>(Nδε(0,⋅),Iδε(0,⋅)),t∈[0,t1]. | (29) |
It is clear that model (23) is a monotone system. Suppose that the semiflow
Ψt(φ)=(Nε(⋅,t,φ1),Iε(⋅,t,φ2)) |
with
(Nδε(⋅,t,φδ1),Iδε(⋅,t,φδ2))=Ψt(φδ). |
Fix
Ψt1+s(φδ)=Ψs(Ψt1(φδ))≥Ψs(φδ), |
then
Ψt(φδ)=Ψs+kt1(φδ)>Ψs+(k−1)t1(φδ)≥⋅⋅⋅≥Ψs(φδ). |
So
Lemma 4.9. Let
(Nσε(⋅,0),Iσε(⋅,0))≡(σ‖Λ‖∞μ_,σ‖Λ‖∞μ_), |
then
Proof. Then maximum principle enables us to infer that
(Nσε(⋅,t),Iσε(⋅,t))≤(σ‖Λ‖∞μ_,σ‖Λ‖∞μ_) |
for
Next, we show the existence, uniqueness and stability of the endemic equilibrium (EE).
Theorem 4.10. If
Proof. Let
(Nδε(⋅,t),Iδε(⋅,t))≤(Nδε(⋅,t+t∗),Iδε(⋅,t+t∗))≤(N(⋅,t+t∗),I(⋅,t+t∗)),t≥0. |
Hence the monotonicity of the
Iε∗≤lim infI(⋅,t). | (30) |
Next we pick
(N(⋅,t∗),I(⋅,t∗))≤(σ‖Λ‖∞μ_,σ‖Λ‖∞μ_), |
then
(N(⋅,t+t∗),I(⋅,t+t∗))≤(Nσ|ε|(⋅,t+t∗),Iσ|ε|(⋅,t+t∗))≤(Nσ|ε|(⋅,t),Iσ|ε|(⋅,t)),t≥0, |
where
lim supI(⋅,t)≤I|ε|∗. | (31) |
It is obvious that
Iε∗→I∗,I|ε|∗→I∗,asε→0. | (32) |
It follows from (30), (31) and (32) that
(S(⋅,t),I(⋅,t))=(N(⋅,t)−I(⋅,t),I(⋅,t))→(S∗−I∗,I∗),ast→∞, |
which is completed the proof.
For the sake of learning the threshold dynamics of model (4) further, in this section, as an example, we adopt
Λ=1,μ=0.2,α=4,γ=0.15,β(x)=β0(1+ccos(πx)), | (33) |
where
R0=supω∈H1(Ω),ω≠0{∫ΩΛβ(x)/μω2∫Ωd|∇ω|2+(μ+γ)ω2}. | (34) |
In the low-risk domain, Fig. 1(a) indicates that
In the high-risk domain, Fig. 2(a) indicates that
In this paper, we investigate the global stability of the steady states of an SIS epidemiological model with a general infection force under intervention strategies in a spatially heterogeneous environment. We introduce the basic reproduction number
In a nutshell, we summarize our main findings as well as their related biological implications. Theorem 4.4 provides us with a full picture of disease-free dynamics of model (4). If the basic reproduction number
Our results are different from the results in [39,10,11] with homogenous environment (i.e.,
It's worthy to point out that, in contrast with [25] and [20], in this paper, the mathematical analysis method of the global stability of the EE is the super-sub solution method. While in [25] and [20], they studied the global stability of the EE in some special cases by using the Lyapunov functional method.
In addition, it should be indicated that, in this paper, due to the difficulties caused by the mathematical analysis, we only focus on the global stability of model (4) in a special case, that is, the diffusion coefficients of
{∂S∂t=dSΔS+Λ(x)−β(x)If(x,I)S−μ(x)S+γ(x)I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂I∂t=dIΔI+β(x)If(x,I)S−μ(x)I−γ(x)I,x∈Ω,t>0,∂S∂n=∂I∂n=0x∈∂Ω,t>0,S(x,0)=S0(x)≥0,I(x,0)=I0(x)≥0,x∈Ω. | (35) |
For model (35), it is interesting to study whether the reproduction number
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1. | Yongli Cai, Xinze Lian, Zhihang Peng, Weiming Wang, Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics for influenza disease in a heterogenous environment, 2019, 46, 14681218, 178, 10.1016/j.nonrwa.2018.09.006 | |
2. | Bo Li, Qunyi Bie, Long-time dynamics of an SIRS reaction-diffusion epidemic model, 2019, 475, 0022247X, 1910, 10.1016/j.jmaa.2019.03.062 | |
3. | Shuyu Han, Chengxia Lei, Xiaoyan Zhang, Qualitative analysis on a diffusive SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence infection mechanism, 2020, 71, 0044-2275, 10.1007/s00033-020-01418-1 | |
4. | Khelifa Bouaziz, Redouane Douaifia, Salem Abdelmalek, 2021, Analysis of Solutions for a Reaction-Diffusion Epidemic Model, 978-1-6654-4171-1, 1, 10.1109/ICRAMI52622.2021.9585987 | |
5. | Khelifa Bouaziz, Analysis and computational modelling of a coupled epidemic reaction-diffusion , 2023, Accepted, 1450-5444, 10.30755/NSJOM.13765 |