Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for a SARS model with time-varying inputs and outputs
-
1.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3B 2E9
-
2.
Department of Statistics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3T 2N2
-
3.
Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N2
-
4.
Department of Mathematics, Malaspina University-College, Nanaimo, BC, Canada V9R 5S5
-
Received:
01 April 2005
Accepted:
29 June 2018
Published:
01 May 2006
-
-
MSC :
92D30.
-
-
This paper presents a statistical study of a deterministic model for the transmission
dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The effect of the
model parameters on the dynamics of the disease is analyzed using sensitivity and
uncertainty analyses. The response (or output) of interest is the control reproduction
number, which is an epidemiological threshold governing the persistence or elimination
of SARS in a given population. The compartmental model includes parameters associated
with control measures such as quarantine and isolation of asymptomatic and symptomatic
individuals. One feature of our analysis is the incorporation of time-dependent
functions into the model to reflect the progressive refinement of these SARS control
measures over time. Consequently, the model contains continuous time-varying inputs and
outputs. In this setting, sensitivity and uncertainty analytical techniques are used in
order to analyze the impact of the uncertainty in the parameter estimates on the results
obtained and to determine which parameters have the largest impact on driving the
disease dynamics.
Citation: Robert G. McLeod, John F. Brewster, Abba B. Gumel, Dean A. Slonowsky. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for a SARS model with time-varying inputs and outputs[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2006, 3(3): 527-544. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2006.3.527
-
Abstract
This paper presents a statistical study of a deterministic model for the transmission
dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The effect of the
model parameters on the dynamics of the disease is analyzed using sensitivity and
uncertainty analyses. The response (or output) of interest is the control reproduction
number, which is an epidemiological threshold governing the persistence or elimination
of SARS in a given population. The compartmental model includes parameters associated
with control measures such as quarantine and isolation of asymptomatic and symptomatic
individuals. One feature of our analysis is the incorporation of time-dependent
functions into the model to reflect the progressive refinement of these SARS control
measures over time. Consequently, the model contains continuous time-varying inputs and
outputs. In this setting, sensitivity and uncertainty analytical techniques are used in
order to analyze the impact of the uncertainty in the parameter estimates on the results
obtained and to determine which parameters have the largest impact on driving the
disease dynamics.
-
-
-
-