The role of techno-economic factors for net zero carbon emissions in Pakistan

Muhammad Amir Raza; M. M. Aman; Abdul Ghani Abro; Muhammad Shahid; Darakhshan Ara; Tufail Ahmed Waseer; Mohsin Ali Tunio; Nadeem Ahmed Tunio; Shakir Ali Soomro; Touqeer Ahmed Jumani; Muhammad Amir Raza; M. M. Aman; Abdul Ghani Abro; Muhammad Shahid; Darakhshan Ara; Tufail Ahmed Waseer; Mohsin Ali Tunio; Nadeem Ahmed Tunio; Shakir Ali Soomro; Touqeer Ahmed Jumani

doi:10.3934/energy.2023013

AIMS Energy

2023, Volume 11, Issue 2: 239-255. doi: 10.3934/energy.2023013

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Research article Special Issues

The role of techno-economic factors for net zero carbon emissions in Pakistan

1.
Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, SZAB Campus Khairpur Mir's, 66020, Pakistan
2.
Centre for Advanced Studies in Renewable Energy (ASURE), NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan
3.
Department of Electrical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan
4.
Department of Electronic Engineering, Dawood University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, 74800, Pakistan
5.
Department of Information Sciences and Humanities, Dawood University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, 74800, Pakistan
6.
Department of Electronic Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, 76062, Pakistan

Received: 28 December 2022 Revised: 27 February 2023 Accepted: 28 February 2023 Published: 13 March 2023

The Government of Pakistan has established clean energy transition goals in the national Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy. The goal of this policy is to increase the 30% capacity of green energy in total energy mix by 2030. In this regard, the aim of this study is to develop a de-carbonization plan for achieving net zero emissions through the deployment of a green energy system for the period 2021 to 2040 by incorporating the ARE policy targets. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software is used for finding the unidirectional causality among gross domestic product, population within the country, energy demand, renewable energy production and CO₂ emissions for Pakistan. The results revealed that energy production of 564.16 TWh is enough to meet the energy demand of 480.10 TWh with CO₂ emissions of 22.19 million metric tons, having a population of 242.1 million people and GDP growth rate of 5.8%, in the year 2040 in Pakistan. The share of green energy production is 535.07 TWh, which can be utilized fully for meeting energy demand in the country, and almost zero emissions will produce till 2040. CO₂ emissions produced by burning natural gas were 20.64 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 3.25 million metric tons in 2040. CO₂ emissions produced by burning furnace oil are also reduced from 4.19 million metric tons in 2020 to 2.06 million metric tons in 2040. CO₂ emissions produced by burning coal were 24.85 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 16.88 million metric tons in 2040. Energy demand is directly related to the population and GDP of the country, while renewable utilization is inversely proportional to carbon emissions. The declining trend of carbon emissions in Pakistan would help to achieve net zero emissions targets by mid-century. This technique would bring prosperity in the development of a clean, green and sustainable environment.
- environmental monitoring,
- CO₂ emissions,
- climate change,
- green economy,
- Pakistan
Citation: Muhammad Amir Raza, M. M. Aman, Abdul Ghani Abro, Muhammad Shahid, Darakhshan Ara, Tufail Ahmed Waseer, Mohsin Ali Tunio, Nadeem Ahmed Tunio, Shakir Ali Soomro, Touqeer Ahmed Jumani. The role of techno-economic factors for net zero carbon emissions in Pakistan[J]. AIMS Energy, 2023, 11(2): 239-255. doi: 10.3934/energy.2023013

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Abstract

The Government of Pakistan has established clean energy transition goals in the national Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy. The goal of this policy is to increase the 30% capacity of green energy in total energy mix by 2030. In this regard, the aim of this study is to develop a de-carbonization plan for achieving net zero emissions through the deployment of a green energy system for the period 2021 to 2040 by incorporating the ARE policy targets. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software is used for finding the unidirectional causality among gross domestic product, population within the country, energy demand, renewable energy production and CO₂ emissions for Pakistan. The results revealed that energy production of 564.16 TWh is enough to meet the energy demand of 480.10 TWh with CO₂ emissions of 22.19 million metric tons, having a population of 242.1 million people and GDP growth rate of 5.8%, in the year 2040 in Pakistan. The share of green energy production is 535.07 TWh, which can be utilized fully for meeting energy demand in the country, and almost zero emissions will produce till 2040. CO₂ emissions produced by burning natural gas were 20.64 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 3.25 million metric tons in 2040. CO₂ emissions produced by burning furnace oil are also reduced from 4.19 million metric tons in 2020 to 2.06 million metric tons in 2040. CO₂ emissions produced by burning coal were 24.85 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 16.88 million metric tons in 2040. Energy demand is directly related to the population and GDP of the country, while renewable utilization is inversely proportional to carbon emissions. The declining trend of carbon emissions in Pakistan would help to achieve net zero emissions targets by mid-century. This technique would bring prosperity in the development of a clean, green and sustainable environment.

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