The impact of intervention strategies and prevention measurements for controlling COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia

Adil Yousif ^{1
,
,},
Awad Ali ^1,2

1.
Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science & Arts Sharourah, Najran University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
2.
Department of Information Technology, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Kassala, Sudan

Received: 24 August 2020 Accepted: 29 October 2020 Published: 13 November 2020

Abstract
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On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization announced the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic due to the rapid growth in the number of cases worldwide. The ability of countries to contain and mitigate interventions is crucial in controlling the exponential spread of the novel virus. Several social distancing and control measurements have been applied in Saudi Arabia to mitigate COVID-19 epidemic such as quarantine, schools closure, suspending travels, reducing crowds, people movement restrictions, self-isolation and contacts tracing. This research aims to study the country interventions in Saudi Arabia and their impact on decreasing the spread of COVID-19. This paper examined different control measurements scenarios produced by a modified SEIR mathematical model with an emphasis on testing capacity expansion and number of critical cases. The modified SEIR mathematical model is solved numerically using Rung-Kutta analysis method for solving the modified SEIR system of ordinary differential equations. The simulation results revealed that the interventions are vital to flatten the virus spread curve. Early implementation of country interventions can delay the peak and decrease the population fatality rate.
- COVID-19,
- control measurements,
- interventions,
- mathematical modeling,
- SEIR,
- testing,
- critical cases
Citation: Adil Yousif, Awad Ali. The impact of intervention strategies and prevention measurements for controlling COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17(6): 8123-8137. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020412

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Abstract

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization announced the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic due to the rapid growth in the number of cases worldwide. The ability of countries to contain and mitigate interventions is crucial in controlling the exponential spread of the novel virus. Several social distancing and control measurements have been applied in Saudi Arabia to mitigate COVID-19 epidemic such as quarantine, schools closure, suspending travels, reducing crowds, people movement restrictions, self-isolation and contacts tracing. This research aims to study the country interventions in Saudi Arabia and their impact on decreasing the spread of COVID-19. This paper examined different control measurements scenarios produced by a modified SEIR mathematical model with an emphasis on testing capacity expansion and number of critical cases. The modified SEIR mathematical model is solved numerically using Rung-Kutta analysis method for solving the modified SEIR system of ordinary differential equations. The simulation results revealed that the interventions are vital to flatten the virus spread curve. Early implementation of country interventions can delay the peak and decrease the population fatality rate.

References

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