Export file:

Format

  • RIS(for EndNote,Reference Manager,ProCite)
  • BibTex
  • Text

Content

  • Citation Only
  • Citation and Abstract

Reconsideration of the plague transmission in perspective of multi-host zoonotic disease model with interspecific interaction

School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

Special Issues: Mathematical modeling and analysis of social and ecological determinants for the dynamics of infectious diseases and public health policies

The human-animal interface plays a vital role in the spread of zoonotic diseases, such as plague, which led to the “Black Death”, the most serious human disaster in medieval Europe. It is reported that more than 200 mammalian species including human beings are naturally infected with plague. Different species acting as different roles construct the transmission net for Yersinia pestis (plague pathogen), in which rodents are the main natural reservoirs. In previous studies, it focused on individual infection of human or animal, rather than cross-species infection. It is worth noting that rodent competition and human-rodent commensalism are rarely considered in the spread of plague. In order to describe it in more detail, we establish a new multi-host mathematical model to reflect the transmission dynamics of plague with wild rodents, commensal rodents and human beings, in which the roles of different species will no longer be at the same level. Mathematical models in epidemiology can clarify the interaction mechanism between plague hosts and provide a method to reflect the dynamic process of plague transmission more quickly and easily. According to our plague model, we redefine the environmental capacity K with interspecific interaction and obtain the reproduction number of zoonotic diseases RZ0, which is an important threshold value to determine the zoonotic disease to break out or not. At the same time, we analyze the biological implications of zoonotic model, and then study some biological hypotheses that had never been proposed or verified before.
  Figure/Table
  Supplementary
  Article Metrics

References

1. R. Perry, J. Fetherston, Yersinia pestis-etiologic agent of plague, Clin. Microbiol. Rev., 10 (1997), 35-66.

2. N. Stenseth, B. Atshabar, M. Begon, S. Belmain, E. Bertherat, E. Carniel, et al., Plague: past, present, and future, Plos Med., 5 (2008), e3.

3. World Health Organization, WHO report on global surveillance of epidemic-prone infectious diseases (No. WHO/CDS/CSR/ISR/2000.1), 2000.

4. K. Kausrud, M. Begon, T. Ari, H. Viljugrein, J. Esper, U. Buntgen, et al., Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium, BMC Biol., 8 (2010), 112.

5. S. Monecke, H. Monecke, J. Monecke, Modelling the black death. A historical case study and implications for the epidemiology of bubonic plague, Int. J. Med. Microbiol., 299 (2009), 582-593.

6. L. Slavicek, The black death, Infobase Publishing, New York, 2008.

7. K. Kugeler, J. Staples, A. Hinckley, Epidemiology of human plague in the United States, 1900-2012, Emerg. Infect. Dis., 21 (2015), 16-22.

8. M. Prentice, L. Rahalison, Plague, Lancet, 1369 (2007), 1196-1207.

9. M. Brice-Saddler, The deadliest form of plague has infected two people in China, and information is scarce, The Washington Post, 2019.

10. Y. Li, Y. Cui, Y. Hauck, M. Platonov, E. Dai, Y. Song, et al., Genotyping and phylogenetic analysis of Yersinia pestis by MLVA: insights into the worldwide expansion of Central Asia plague foci, PloS One, 4 (2009), e6000.

11. T. Butler, Plague and Other Yersinia Infections. Springer Science and Business Media, Berlin, 2012.

12. N. Gratz, Rodent reservoirs and flea vectors of natural foci of plague, Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control, 6 (1999), 63-96.

13. S. Jones, B. Atshabar, B. Schmid, M. Zuk, A Amramina, N. Stenseth, et al., Living with plague: Lessons from the Soviet Union's antiplague system, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116 (2019), 9155-9163.    

14. R. Davis, R. Smith, M. Madon, E. Sitko-Cleugh, Flea, rodent, and plague ecology at Chuchupate campground, Ventura County, California, J. Vector Ecol., 27 (2002), 107-127.

15. M. Antolin, P. Gober, B. Luce, D. Biggins, W. van Pelt, D. Seery, et al., The influence of sylvatic plague on North American wildlife at the landscape level, with special emphasis on black-footed ferret and prairie dog conservation, Transactions of The Sixty-Seventh North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference, (2002), 104-127.

16. M. Molles, Ecology: Concepts and Applications, McGraw-Hill Education, New York, 2018.

17. E. Castillo, J. Priotto, A. M. Ambrosio, M. C. Provensal, N. Pini, M. A. Morales, et al., Commensal and wild rodents in an urban area of Argentina, Int. Biodeterior. Biodegrad., 52 (2003), 135-141.

18. M. Gomez, M. Provensal, J. Polop, Effect of interspecific competition on Mus musculus in an urban area, J. Pest. Sci., 81 (2008), 235-240.

19. Z. Zheng, Z. Jiang, A. Chen, The Rodentiology, Shanghai Jiaotong University Press, Shanghai, 2012.

20. M. Lund, Commensal rodents, Rodent Pests and Their Control, (1994), 23-43.

21. L. Weissbrod, F. Marshall, F. Valla, H. Khalaily, G. Bar-Oz, J. Auffray, et al., Origins of house mice in ecological niches created by settled hunter-gatherers in the Levant 15,000 y ago, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114 (2017), 4099-4104.

22. J. Mackenzie, M. Jeggo, P. Daszak, J. Richt, One Health: The Human-Animal-Environment Interfaces in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, 2013.

23. O. Benedictow, Yersinia pestis, the bacterium of plague, arose in East Asia. Did it spread westwards via the Silk Roads, the Chinese maritime expeditions of Zheng He or over the vast Eurasian populations of sylvatic (wild) rodents?, J. Asian. His., 47 (2013): 1-31.

24. K. Dean, F. Krauer, L. Walloe, O. Lingjarde, B. Bramanti, N. Stenseth, et al., Human ectoparasites and the spread of plague in Europe during the Second Pandemic, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115 (2018), 1304-1309.

25. E. Massad, F. Coutinho, M. Burattini, L. Lopez, The Eyam plague revisited: did the village isolation change transmission from fleas to pulmonary?, Med. Hypotheses, 63 (2004), 911-915.

26. J. Cui, F. Chen, S. Fan, Effect of Intermediate Hosts on Emerging Zoonoses, Vector-Borne. Zoonotic., 17 (2017), 599-609.

27. S. Tsuzuki, H. Lee, F. Miura, Y. Chan, S. Jung, A. Akhmetzhanov, et al., Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017, Euro. Surveill., 22 (2017), 17-00710.

28. J. Blackburn, H. Ganz, J. Ponciano, W. Turner, S. Ryan, P. Kamath, et al., Modeling R0 for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 16 (2019), 954.

29. O. Diekmann, J. Heesterbeek, J. Metz, On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations, J. Math. Biol., 28 (1990), 365-382.

30. P. Van den Driessche, J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48.

31. H. Thieme, Persistence under relaxed point-dissipativity (with application to an endemic model), SIAM J. Math. Anal., 24 (1993), 407-435.

32. L. Han, A. Pugliese, Epidemics in two competing species, Nonlinear. Anal. Real., 10 (2009), 723-744.

33. P. Magal, X. Zhao, Global attractors and steady states for uniformly persistent dynamical systems, SIAM J. Math. Anal., 37 (2005), 251-275.

34. J. Murray, Mathematical Biology: I. An Introduction, Third Edition, Springer, Berlin, 2013.

35. R. Jones, A false start? The Roman urbanization of western Europe, World Archaeology, 19 (1987), 47-57.

36. O. Diekmann, J. Heesterbeek, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Wiley, New York, 2000.

37. N. Samia, K. Kausrud, H. Heesterbeek, V. Ageyev, M. Begone, K. Chan, et al., Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108 (2011), 14527-14532.

38. B. Schmid, U. Buntgen, W. Easterday, C. Ginzler, L. Walloe, B. Bramanti, et al., Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112 (2015), 3020-3025.    

39. L. Xu, L. Stige, H. Leirs, S. Neerinckx, K. Gage, R. Yang, et al., Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116 (2019), 11833-11838.

40. X. Wan, G. Jiang, C. Yan, F. He, R. Wen, J. Gu, et al., Historical records reveal the distinctive associations of human disturbance and extreme climate change with local extinction of mammals, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116 (2019), 19001-19008.

41. H. Tian, N. Stenseth, The ecological dynamics of hantavirus diseases: From environmental variability to disease prevention largely based on data from China, PLoS Neglect. Trop. D., 13 (2019), e0006901.

42. A. Pugliese, Population models for disease with no recovery, J. Math. Biol., 28 (1990), 65-82.

43. J. Zhou, H. Hethcote, Population size dependent incidence in models for diseases without immunity, J. Math. Biol., 32 (1994), 809-834.

© 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licese (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

Download full text in PDF

Export Citation

Article outline

Show full outline
Copyright © AIMS Press All Rights Reserved