Modeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak

1.
Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas, 36023 Guanajuato, Guanajuato, Mexico
2.
Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, 22860 Baja California, Mexico

Received: 21 April 2020 Accepted: 11 June 2020 Published: 15 June 2020

Abstract
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In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.
- COVID-19,
- epidemic model,
- basic reproduction number,
- control strategies,
- parameter estimation
Citation: Fernando Saldaña, Hugo Flores-Arguedas, José Ariel Camacho-Gutiérrez, Ignacio Barradas. Modeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17(4): 4165-4183. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020231

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Abstract

In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.

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