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Subthreshold coexistence of strains: the impact of vaccination and mutation

1. Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-8105
2. Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Trento, 38050 Povo (Trento)
3. Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Henan 464000, P.R.

We consider a model for a disease with two competing strains and vaccination. The vaccine provides complete protection against one of the strains (strain 2) but only partial protection against the other (strain 1). The partial protection leads to existence of subthreshold equilibria of strain 1. If the first strain mutates into the second, there are subthreshold coexistence equilibria when both vaccine-dependent reproduction numbers are below one. Thus, a vaccine that is specific toward the second strain and that, in absence of other strains, should be able to eliminate the second strain by reducing its reproduction number below one, cannot do so because it provides only partial protection to another strain that mutates into the second strain.
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Keywords latent stage; coexistence; strongly subthreshold coexistence; vaccine enhanced pathogen polymorphism. ; multiple coexistence equilibria; multiple endemic equilibria; mutation; backward bifurcation; latent-stage progression age structure; alternating stability; vaccination

Citation: Maia Martcheva, Mimmo Iannelli, Xue-Zhi Li. Subthreshold coexistence of strains: the impact of vaccination and mutation. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2007, 4(2): 287-317. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.287


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